Here in South Florida, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect, and it's starting to feel pretty windy up in here.
Hurricane Milton Forecast Track
The latest information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 5 p.m. Wednesday, October 9, finds Milton moving northeast through the Gulf of Mexico at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds around 120 mph. The storm is now 60 miles west-southwest of Sarasota."Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday," the NHC says.
"Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.
"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)."
We're going to say it again: This is what professional journalists call "shitty weather."
Barring some unprecedented wobble, the worst of it will pass to our north. Hurricane Warnings on the Atlantic coast still extend only as far south as the Martin County–St. Lucie County line. (A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Martin County.)
All that said, residents of Miami-Dade and Broward counties are feeling some of this mess and must take precautions.
Rainfall and Storm Surge Predictions for Florida
The latest NHC forecast now predicts storm surge in the range of six to nine feet in Tampa Bay, with slightly higher numbers for the barrier islands off Bradenton and Sarasota, southward to Charlotte. "Rainfall amounts of six to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding," the NHC warns.
On his Tropical Atlantic Update weather blog on Wednesday afternoon, New Times' go-to meteorological expert Brian McNoldy didn't mince words.
"The center of the hurricane will pass very close to Tampa (if not directly over it), and the bay will get an extremely high storm surge if the southern eyewall passes over the bay, and much less if the northern side passes over it. That's the difference between onshore and offshore winds. The exact inundation depth everywhere won't be known right away, but tide gauges in the area will help with estimates at specific sites — if the tide gauges remain intact. Between the wind and storm surge, this day will change Tampa for a very long time," McNoldy writes.
"The only other analogs that come up for this occurred in 1921 and 1848, so this is unprecedented in the past century, and a lot has changed in Tampa since 1921!"
McNoldy also mentions tornadoes.
"A common threat with landfalling hurricanes that sometimes gets overlooked amidst the other hazards is tornadoes. Hurricane rainbands can be prolific tornado producers, primarily in the front-right quadrant (relative to their direction of travel). In that radar animation [linked here], all of those red polygons are tornado warnings that were issued during the day. Some of the observed tornadoes were unusually large and intense — 'wedges' — which is rather extraordinary for hurricane-spawned tornadoes."
Three-Day South Florida Weather Forecast
First things first: If you have concerns about flooding around your home, the City of Miami and other municipalities have begun distributing sandbags.Speaking of tornadoes, far west Miami-Dade and Broward counties have seen an extraordinary number of tornado watches, warnings, and videos today, and that might well continue this evening. (Though probably not the video part.)
As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast calls for the following over the next several days:
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for South Florida, meaning tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours.
Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes this evening. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Breezy with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy with lows in the mid 70s. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight.
Friday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 30 percent.
This is a breaking news post and will be updated several times per day for as long as weather and other services supply useful information about Hurricane Milton's effect on South Florida.
