Gas Prices Are Down — But FIU Researcher Warns of Hurricane Season Spike

Pulling up to the gas pump in Miami in recent weeks hasn't been as hellish a mission as it was in the past few months.

Through a long summer stretch, filling the tank meant taking a serious look at one's checking account to decide whether walking to work was a better option. But over the past four weeks, gas prices have dipped below the $4-per-gallon mark, in part thanks to falling demand.

Last month, the American Automobile Association (AAA) released a new survey that showed U.S. drivers are changing their habits in order to deal with rising gas prices: driving less or combining errands to conserve fuel. And a researcher at Florida International University (FIU) says those new habits are helping to drive down prices.

"We've been dealing with gas prices above $4 since March. After six months of that, people start to make more conscious decisions about their commutes and how much they drive, and gas stations have to lower prices to entice people back to the pump," explains Britney Broxton, a research assistant at FIU's Jorge M. Perez Metropolitan Center.

Broxton has been tracking gas prices in Miami-Dade County since March and has created a series of infographics on social media that illustrate gas price fluctuation using data from AAA's gas price index and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Since 2021, gas prices have skyrocketed in the U.S., in part owing to the pandemic but also to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The February 2022 invasion severely disrupted supply chains and oil-refining operations and prompted the United States to ban Russian oil imports. Because Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers, the ban caused a historic spike in gas prices: The national average gas price in May was $4.81 — $1.62 more than the average just one year prior.

In Miami-Dade County, prices at the pump reached as high as $4.64 in May but are finally tapering off. As of today, the average gas price in the county is about $3.87, just above the state's average price of $3.75, according to AAA.

Broxton explains that Miami-Dade's gas is a little pricier than other parts of Florida because of low public transit ridership, higher population density, and the influx of residents with higher incomes who can afford higher prices.

Still, Miami is now below the national average gas price of $4.03 per gallon, and prices may continue to trend down as the summer travel season ends and kids are going back to school on public buses.

However, Broxton warns that we're not out of the woods yet. The U.S. is still importing far less gasoline than it was this time last year — an average of 697,000 barrels per day in late July compared to 1.043 million barrels for the same period in 2021, according to the EIA — and Florida's hurricane season doesn't end until the end of November.

If a hurricane hits, prices may shoot back up. And if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates further, oil supplies might fall too low to meet steady demand.

"When there's a natural disaster, prices go up because sellers know people need gas in the event of a hurricane," Broxton explains. "And if there's an impending international event, like if things go haywire with Russia, prices may spike up as well. It really depends on uncontrollable events."

One thing Broxton insists that consumers should keep in mind is that no one thing — or one elected official — causes gas prices to go up or down, and no one solution will keep them down. A host of economic forces come together to determine the price at the pump.

"People forget that many factors play into how we got where we are now, and there are no simple explanations or answers," she asserts.