Based on a survey from the week of October 20, which sampled 937 registered voters 18 years of age or older living in U.S., Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent. Three percent of respondents were undecided and 2 percent supported another candidate. The poll's estimated margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.
Of those who said they'll vote for Harris, 91 percent said they voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, while 2 percent said they voted for Trump. Among female voters, Harris polled at 49 percent; among voters ages 18 to 49, she polled at 47 percent.
Trump leads among male voters, at 48 percent, and among those 50 years or older, by less than half a percentage point.
Of the voters surveyed, 31 percent said they plan to vote by mail, 32 percent said they'll vote early in person, and 33 percent indicated they plan to vote on election day.
The findings are in line with national polling averages reported by the New York Times, which have Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent. A national survey from the Wall Street Journal found Trump ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. The latest New York Times/Siena College Poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent.
The Swing State Story
"It seems to be coming down to the big three: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin," Steve Pinkus, vice president of Mainstreet Research, tells New Times. Regarding Pennsylvania, Pinkus notes that stand-up comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's racist joke about Puerto Rico at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday could cost the former president in ways polling has not yet accounted for.
"There's half a million Puerto Rican votes in Pennsylvania," Pinkus says. "It might be enough to turn the state."
As far as U.S. House of Representatives races, 46 percent said they'd vote Republican, and 45 percent said they'd vote Democrat.
"Everything is getting closer, every state," adds Mainstreet senior data analyst Robert Martin. "The noncompetitive states are slowly becoming more competitive and that pushes the popular vote out, but at the same time, the swing states are still very close. Either candidate could win the swing states very easily."
