FAU Florida Poll: Abortion and Marijuana Initiatives Are on Track to Pass

While Vice President Kamala Harris' chances at winning Florida in next week's presidential election are pretty much out the window, a new poll has found that two major ballot initiatives are likely to pass — which would mark a win for Democrats in the state.

The Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) poll, undertaken in partnership with Mainstreet Research, found Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana, has the support of 60 percent of voters. Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, was only slightly less popular, with 58 percent of voters in support.

Both initiatives require a 60 percent supermajority to pass. With respect to Amendment 4, 11 percent of respondents said they were undecided, leading pollsters to predict that it too will pass.

"Even if they split 50-50, that gets them over the 60 percent," Steve Pinkus, vice president of Mainstreet Research, tells New Times.

More than 63 percent of male voters and 58 percent of female voters said they support legalizing recreational marijuana under Amendment 3, with 6 percent undecided.

The gender numbers swing in the opposite direction when it comes to protecting abortion rights, with 54 percent of male voters and 61 percent of female voters in support.

The findings are based on results of a survey conducted from October 19 to October 27 via text message. The sample included 913 registered voters who live in Florida and are 18 years or older.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The poll found that former president Donald Trump is leading among Florida voters by 9 percentage points at 53 percent to Harris' 44 percent. It also showed Trump making inroads with female voters — he trails Harris by 0.6 percent in that voting bloc.

Nearly 58 percent of male voters in the state support Trump, whereas only 39 percent support Harris.

In other statewide races, the poll found incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 4 percentage points among likely voters and those who've already cast ballots. More than 54 percent of male voters say they support Scott, compared to the 42 percent who back Murcasel-Powell. Polling indicates that she narrowly leads among female voters.