2025 Hurricane Forecast Predicts Low Risk for Florida’s Atlantic Coast

Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes on the horizon this year.

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic, paired with potential La Niña conditions (abnormally low sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific), has created a dynamic environment for intense hurricanes to strike the Atlantic coast, according to an April report from the university's Department of Atmospheric Science.

Miami was spared by the busy 2024 hurricane season, and researchers' 2025 predictions include a similarly low 26 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike somewhere along Florida's Atlantic coast. Forecasters predict a 92 percent chance of a named storm striking somewhere in Florida this year and a 35 percent chance the state sees a major hurricane within 50 miles; both numbers are down from 2024, according to the university.

"Large-scale environmental factors aren't as favorable for the season to be quite as active as 2024," Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, tells New Times.

While the university's early predictions are primarily for academic consumption, McNoldy said it's important for everyone living close to the coast to keep an eye on them.

"We always need to be paying attention to the storms that are out there because some of them could have our name on them," he said.

According to McNoldy, the South Florida hurricane season peaks between August and October, and more hurricanes have struck South Florida in October than in any other month. Miami-area residents should tune in to university updates in June, July, and August, which are closer to South Florida's peak hurricane season, he said.

Information gathered through March, compared to about 40 years of meteorological data, indicated the 2025 hurricane season will be above averages set between 1991 and 2020, according to the university. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 31. 

"Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April," the report reads ..."We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem."

The university predicted 17 named storms, resulting in 85 named storm days for 2025 (the average is 69), nine hurricanes (the average is seven), 35 hurricane days (the average is 27), and four major hurricanes (the average is three).

Last year, the university also predicted a busy Atlantic hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. According to the university, "seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years."

The 2024 Atlantic storm season produced 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Among them was Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, which caused widespread devastation in Houston.

The most recent similar storm season was in 2017, when Category 4 storms like Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma struck Texas and Florida, respectively.