Vegas Odds: The Best, Worst, Sneakiest, and Most WTF Miami Heat Prop Bets

As the Heat's 2024-25 season begins, here are some of the most popular prop bets and what we think about them.

October 23, 2024

Image: Jaime Jaquez of the Miami Heat holds the basketball away from a Philadelphia 76ers reaching out for a steal

Jaime Jaquez Jr., NBA Sixth Man of the year? At +1500, we might just want a piece of that. Photo by Tim Nwachuku/Getty Images

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While you've been preoccupied lamenting the Miami Dolphins' rough start to the 2024-25 campaign or basking in the glow of the Florida Panthers' return as defending Stanley Cup champions, the Miami Heat have been quietly getting back to work, preparing for another against-all-odds run at the franchises fourth NBA title.

Speaking of odds, the sharps have set them for all things Miami Heat entering tonight's season opener against the Orlando Magic at the Kaseya Center, and we have some thoughts on where they've set the bar.

Below are some of the most popular prop bets heading into the season opener, and what we think about them. As always: This is not financial advice. We're probably going to be wrong.

Miami Heat 2024-25 Betting Odds

Let's set the stage. Below are the Miami Heat's odds according to FanDuel.

NBA Championship +5000
Eastern Conference +2700
Southeast Division +200
NBA Cup +3200
Odds to Make Playoffs -310
2024-25 Win Total 43.5 Wins (O/U)

Yikes — the hunted have become the hunters. The Heat certainly aren't entering the new season with high expectations, at least according to Vegas. It's not all bad, though if you're bullish on the Heat, that means at least a few opportunities in the doubt-filled odds.

Let's tackle what we think Vegas got wrong.

Best Bet: Heat to Win Southeast Division (+200)

The Heat are currently listed at +200 to win the Southeast Division, which seems low. Have you seen who is in the Southeast Division?!

If you're asking if we think the Heat can win a division that includes the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic, and Washington Wizards, then yes, please, by all means, take our bet and give us plus money.

Take the Over: Over 43.5 Wins (-110)

The Heat's season win total is set at over/under 43.5. That means in an 82-game season, the sharps want you to decide if Miami can go 44-38, which, if we're being honest, sounds like the most Miami Heat record ever. It's like the new Miami Dolphins always go 7-9 of our life.

That said, of late, the Heat have garnered a reputation for not taking the regular season seriously, and it truly feels like this season they'll go a bit harder to ensure they're not in the play-in tournament for a third consecutive year.

Even with Jimmy Butler missing much of the regular season last year, the Heat finished with 46 victories. A 50-32 season shouldn't be off the table this time around.

Sneaky Bet: Jaime Jaquez Jr. for NBA Sixth Man of the Year (+1500)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. will likely begin the season coming off the bench for Miami. That may change quickly if Nikola Jovic stinks up the joint playing with the first five or if someone gets hurt, but as of now, the second-year forward will play a significant role with the second unit.

Last season, Jaquez Jr. averaged 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game, shooting nearly 49 percent from the field. Given his versatility, guaranteed minutes, and experience, Jaquez Jr.'s +1500 odds seem like a dandy high-upside play.

Worst Bet: Miami Heat to Make the Playoffs (-310)

Sucker bet alert: All it takes is one tweak of a Jimmy Butler knee or one Bam Adebayo back injury and this Miami Heat team is toast.

The Heat are much closer to Terry Rozier launching 30 shots a game than they are being able to withstand a major injury. At -310, invest your money elsewhere.

WTF Bet: Miami Heat to Win the NBA Cup (+3200)

Literally, who cares? The answer is: You. You will care if you bet on the NBA's in-season tournament, which awards something called the "NBA Cup." We just found this out!

The NBA Cup was introduced last season, and the Heat were unable to make it out of East Group B. This year, they're listed at +330 to win East Group B and +3200 to take home the trophy.

Huh? As juicy as +3200 on anything Miami Heat looks, you may have a problem if you're dropping racks on this one.

Culture Bet: Miami Heat to Win the NBA Championship (+5000)

Oh, you're a Miami Heat fan, are you? Vegas says prove it. They're literally betting you won't put your money where your mouth is by giving you ridiculous +5000 odds on winning the title this season.

Could this Miami Heat team win it all? Maybe. Probably not. But could this Heat team get off to a hot start and trade for a superstar before the playoffs who pushes those +5000 odds to +500? One thousand percent.

If it were a sure bet, they wouldn't call it betting!

Ryan Yousefi, a sports journalist and MBA holder in business healthcare management, has been a dedicated weekly contributor to the Miami New Times since 2013. Beyond his sports journalism career, he's held leadership roles in web3 gaming companies. He enjoys southeast Asia travel, pho, and whiskey, but most of all, being Lincoln's dad.

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