Mike McDaniel May Have Just Analytics’d Himself out of a Job

If there was ever a perfectly scripted metaphor for the end of the Mike McDaniel era in Miami, it was an inexplicable, analytics-driven, context-lacking punt that left the entire sports world bewildered. 

If punts could talk, the one that left Miami Dolphins punter Jake Bailey’s foot in the fourth quarter of the team’s 27-24 loss to the Carolina Panthers would have stared at the sideline and screamed, “You’re all getting fired for this!” the entire time it was in the air. After blowing an early 17-0 lead, the Dolphins found themselves trailing 27-24 with under two minutes remaining. 

What followed was one of the most baffling offensive sequences in Dolphins history, and a disaster class in how a coach can assure he’s going to be updating his LinkedIn with an Open to Work banner in the near future. 

On third and ten at their own 22-yard line, the pocket collapsed and Tua Tagovailoa was buried for a seven-yard loss, forcing a fourth-and-17 from Miami’s 15. Not ideal by any means, but at that moment, with 1:38  left on the clock, Miami had two choices: Gain 17 yards on the next play or punt and hope their defense, which had been putrid all day, could force a Panthers three-and-out that would get them back the football with under a minute left.

Easy choice for an offensive-minded coach fully aware of his team’s lack of talent and competence on the defensive side of the ball, right? Die by your strengths, right?

Wrong. Incredibly, McDaniel not only bypassed the clear best option — to go for it — but chose a third option behind door three – burn 28 seconds off the clock and punt the ball with 1:10 remaining, leaving the Panthers’ drive to start with just 1:03 to go. 

Perhaps even more perplexing than the decision to punt from his own 15 with 70 seconds left in the game was the fact that no media members asked McDaniel to explain the decision at the postgame press conference following the game. It’s entirely possible no one wanted to sit through a classic long-winded explanation from Mr. Talkypants.

The analytics might’ve said punt. The odds might’ve favored playing field position. However, football isn’t played on spreadsheets or by asking ChatGPT for instructions. Humans are at play, and so is human error. And the odds didn’t account for cornerback Jack Jones committing a back-breaking defensive pass interference penalty on third down, gifting Carolina a first down and sealing the Dolphins’ fate. 

McDaniel very well may have bet his coaching career on Jack Jones, not Tua, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Derrick Waller. Odds are, if he doesn’t regret relying on the odds already, he will soon enough. 

Punting, by nature, is waving a symbolic white flag and surrendering possession of the ball to the opposing team. It’s strategic. But if you’re wondering if the strategy of punting the ball back to your opponent down 3 with 63 seconds left in the game is commonplace, it, in fact, is not. 

McDaniel’s decision to punt away his season was likely a fitting end to his tenure as head coach, even if it officially concludes this offseason.