Trump Coming to Miami on Friday; Latest Florida Poll Shows Him in Slim Lead

Despite the fact that two of his biggest competitors are actual Florida politicians, Donald Trump holds a slim lead among likely Florida Republican primary voters. He'll up to firm up that lead by dropping by Florida later this week. The jaunt will include Trump's first public visit to his Trump National Doral Miami golf resort since announcing his presidential candidacy. 

The Doral event will be open to the public with doors opening at 5 p.m. on Friday and the event actually kicking off at 7 p.m. 

The hotel was at the center of one of Trump's earlier campaign controversies. Trump, of course, got in a war of words with Univision's news division for his views on immigration. Univision's main production studios border the resort, and Trump responded by barring all Univision staff from the property

The controversy spread through Miami-Dade County, with commissioners calling for a ban on the county government from doing any business with Trump. And the generally Republican-leaning Latin Builders Association also pulled their annual gala from Trump's resort in protest

Despite all of this, Trump isn't necessarily unpopular with voters in Florida or even South Florida. 

Few state-level polls have broken their data down based on media markets, but a St. Pete Polls survey from July did show Trump leading in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale media market. 

Now a new University of North Florida poll shows Trump still maintains a narrow lead in all of Florida, with 21.7 percent of likely Republican primary voters in the state backing him. Ben Carson, who resides in West Palm Beach, is in second place with 19.3 percent. Marco Rubio takes third with 14.9 percent, and Jeb Bush is a distant fourth with just 9 percent in the state he formerly governed. 

Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina take fifth and sixth place with 6.8 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich comes in seventh, likely owing in part to Florida's large Ohio expat population. All other candidates are below 2 percent in that poll. 

When asked who their second favorite candidate is, Rubio reigns supreme with 20.1 percent. Ben Carson is at 14.9 percent. Carly Fiorina is the second choice of 11.1 percent. Jeb Bush is at a dismal 10.2 percent — ouch. 

Though, the data shows that while Trump has carved out a comfortable following in Florida, it's unlikely his lead has much room to grow. Just 6 percent pick him as his second choice. Almost 40 percent view him unfavorably, the largest unfavorable rating of any candidate. 
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Kyle Munzenrieder