The Miami Dolphins Have a 0.6% Chance of Making the Playoffs: Here's How

Here's the good news: the Miami Dolphins are not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Here's the bad news: according to Sports Club Stats they have about a 0.6 percent chance of actually getting to the playoffs. In fact, of all teams that are still left in playoff contention, the Fins have the smallest possibility of actually making it, but there's hope and here's how they can do in.

Basically the team is running last in a three-way race with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the final wild card spot in the AFC.

  • Obviously the team has to win its last two games. Those games are Sunday against Buffalo (a good possibility for a win!) and the following week against New England (...eek). If they lose either, than they're out.
  • They also need the Cincinnati Bengals to lose both of their games.
  • One of those Bengals games is against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers need to win that one, but drop their next game against Cleveland.

If all of this happened, then Cincy, Pitt and Miami would end up in an 8-8 tie. The Dolphins would win thanks to having a better conference record.

But, wait, there's one more caveat. The Jets would also need to lose one final game. Because of complicated NFL playoff math, while the Jets are now mathematically eliminated they still have the same 6-8 record as Miami. If they wound up in that 8-8 tie scenario, they'd eliminate the Dolphins thanks to a better record against common opponents.

It's complicated, and it's a long shot. Hopefully the team will eventually get it together enough so we're not clinging onto the hope of a miracle to get them into the playoffs.

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