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Sarah Palin Likely Wouldn't Win Florida Primary, Says Poll Guru

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Maybe it was coincidental, but Barack Obama pulled ahead in Florida in the 2008 election shortly after John McCain introduced Sarah Palin as his running mate. Does the Sunshine Sstate not like America's most prominent hockey mom?


Nate Silver, the respected poll guru of FiveThirtyEight.com, says conditions aren't in Sarah Palin's favor in Florida if she chooses to run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Crunching a bunch of numbers -- including money given to SarahPAC and the number of rural, un-college-educated, self-described conservatives and white Evangelical voters -- Silver concludes Florida would likely send delegates to another candidate.

About 32 states seem favorable to Palin, but Florida isn't one of them. The only thing Palin has going for her is that a number of Florida voters are highly concerned with energy and terrorism policy, but the numbers don't add up in the other categories. According to Silver:

Florida's Republican voters, meanwhile, are relatively urban and reasonably well-educated, and my hunch is that Palin will not play well with groups like Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics and Jewish voters who collectively make up about 15 percent of the state's Republican primary electorate.

Florida might be within Palin's grasp depending on how the dynamics shake out, but it seems it would be in her favor if Florida doesn't again try to push its primary date forward and returns to its traditional, later-in-the-election date.

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