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The Miami Marlins “flipped the M” just enough times this season to sneak into the playoffs as the National League’s second Wild Card team.
Kicking off their fourth-ever postseason appearance with a series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, the Marlins are underdogs by any reasonable stretch of the imagination. The Fish come into the fray with the worst run differential – negative 56 – of any playoff team in Major League Baseball history, and they’re dealing with injuries to key starting pitchers.
But history may be on the Marlins’ side, with two of their previous playoff appearances, also as a Wild Card team, ending in World Series titles.
Let’s take a 30,000-foot view of the Marlins-Phillies series and cover all you need to know heading into tonight’s big Game 1 matchup.
The Phillie Phanatic should be wary of Jazz Chisholm’s bat.
Photo by Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
Marlins vs. Phillies: Tale of the Tape
The Marlins will face the 90-win Phillies team in the National League Wild Card round, with every game in the best-of-three series scheduled on the Phillies’ home turf at Citizens Bank Park. Thanks to a Diamondbacks loss on Sunday, Miami secured the second Wild Card team slot, sending them to Philly instead of Milwaukee for a series against the NL Central champion Brewers.
That’s not bad news, as the Marlins won the season series over the Phillies 7-6, although four of those wins were by a single run.
Still, Philadelphia can bash, with a little help from sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Couple that with the fact that Miami was 12 games below .500 against playoff teams, and it stands to reason Miami will have their hands full with the Phillies.
Game Time and Pitching Matchups
While the euphoria of the Marlins making the playoffs is bubbling, they’ll need some superhuman efforts from the proverbial Robins to their usual Batmans on the pitching staff to get past the Phillies, as Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez, the Marlins’ top starting pitchers, are expected to miss the series due to injury.
The projected pitching matchups and game times heading into the series are as follows:
Game 1: Marlins at Phillies, Tuesday, October 3 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
Probable starters: Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA)
Game 2: Marlins at Phillies, Wednesday, October 4 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
Probable starters: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA)
Game 3: Marlins at Phillies, Thursday, October 5 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
If you’re looking for good news regarding the pitching matchups, consider this: the Phillies were 0-4 against Luzardo and Garrett this season.
Opens calendar, add reminder! 🗓ï¸
La rumba continúa en @loandepotpark tomorrow and at Sports and Social at Dolphin Mall on Wednesday.
See you soon: https://t.co/suPK8p5KF4 pic.twitter.com/ksAT9ELUI1
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) October 2, 2023
Pathway to Victory?
We could break down the analytics and share what others have predicted would lead to the Marlins’ success, but in the end, this Marlins team is just different because they’re playing confidently and having fun. For the Marlins to make a postseason run, that must continue.
Lots of Jazz Chisholm swagger, Luis Arraez hits, and bombs from Jake Burger and Josh Bell will be the recipe for these Marlins to move on, but most importantly, they’ll need to quiet the Phillies’ bats with good pitching, both from the starters and the bullpen.
It's been a special year in South Beach ðŸ–ï¸
The @Marlins are heading to the #Postseason! pic.twitter.com/IMnXowtj4x
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 2, 2023
Marlins Watch Parties
Does Miami playing the entire series on the road have you down? Looking for a place to enjoy the games with fellow Marlins fans? You’re in luck – the Marlins are hosting multiple watch parties all series long at Loan Depot Park.
Gates for the Miami Marlins watch parties open at 7:30 p.m., and parking is free. Concessions will be available, and all seating is general admission. To attend, claim your free tickets here.
Las Vegas Doesn’t Believe
What are the Marlins’ chances of taking down the Phillies and having the franchise’s third-ever World Series parade? If you ask the Las Vegas oddsmakers, they’re not great!
Currently, the Marlins sit at +5000 to win the World Series, the worst of any team in the postseason. That means if you put $10 on the Marlins to win it all, and they did, you’d be paid $510 for your prediction.
For Miami fans who recently watched the Florida Panthers and the Miami Heat get to their league’s championship rounds after sneaking into the playoffs as eight-seeds, doubt and shocking the sports world are nothing new.
The Marlins’ journey to defy the odds begins tonight.
