Democratic Voter Gains in Miami Could Erode Republicans' House Majority

Keep New Times Free
I Support
  • Local
  • Community
  • Journalism
  • logo

Support the independent voice of Miami and help keep the future of New Times free.

Sometimes I'm not entirely sure if we understand "democracy" here in Florida. Besides some presidential election in 2000 that people are still talking about, we could also point to the fact that in the past ten years only six incumbent members of the Florida House have lost their bids for re-election. Considering that there's 120 seats in that body, it's sort of mind boggling.

Of course we can partially thank the Republican's aggressive gerrymandering for that. It's resulted in massive majorities in both the house and senate despite the fact that their are considerably more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Steve Schale, a former communications director for the Florida House Democrats, head of President Obama's campaign in Florida, and political math nerds says there may be good news for Dems in the future though.

He predicts that the party could pick up four to five seats in the 2010 election, and some of those may be in Miami.

For example, of the six fastest Democratic trending seats currently held by the GOP, four are in Orlando: Cannon (HD 35), Nelson (HD 38), Precourt (HD 41) and Einsaugle (HD 40), and five of the next nine are in the Miami media market (Bogdanoff (HD 91), Robaina, Rivera, Lopez-Cantera and Fresen).

What is unique about all nine of these districts? In 2002 (and even 2006), arguably only two of them could be deemed competitive- HD 38 and HD 91, and in both cases, just barely. Today, you could easily make the case that at least six and potentially eight are competitive.

Also, in all nine of these cases, larger demographic and population shifts will almost certainly continue these trends for the foreseeable future.

Read the rest of Shale's analysis here.

Keep Miami New Times Free... Since we started Miami New Times, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Miami, and we would like to keep it that way. Offering our readers free access to incisive coverage of local news, food and culture. Producing stories on everything from political scandals to the hottest new bands, with gutsy reporting, stylish writing, and staffers who've won everything from the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi feature-writing award to the Casey Medal for Meritorious Journalism. But with local journalism's existence under siege and advertising revenue setbacks having a larger impact, it is important now more than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" membership program, allowing us to keep covering Miami with no paywalls.

We use cookies to collect and analyze information on site performance and usage, and to enhance and customize content and advertisements. By clicking 'X' or continuing to use the site, you agree to allow cookies to be placed. To find out more, visit our cookies policy and our privacy policy.


Join the New Times community and help support independent local journalism in Miami.


Join the New Times community and help support independent local journalism in Miami.