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The Miami Dolphins escaped with a 21-17 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, surviving a late, Curse of the Tequesta-level collapse. Thanks to pulling out a victory that felt more like a sigh of relief than a statement of what’s to come, the 5–7 Dolphins kept their postseason hopes alive.
Technically.
Even NFL.com pins the Dolphins’ playoff hopes as less “alive” or even “on life support” and more in line with the Polymarket odds that LeBron James or Kim Kardashian could become the next president of the United States of America.
One percent, to be exact.
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That’s right, according to NFL.com, Miami’s furious late-season rally from national embarrassment to merely subpar has elevated them all the way to, well, extremely unlikely to play any games beyond their mandated regular-season schedule.
Then again, on the bright side, the fact that we’re even mentioning the mathematical chance of a postseason berth in December is a Christmas miracle in itself!
Dolphins Win Despite Tua
What is most impressive about the Dolphins remaining — albeit only statistically — “on the bubble” for an AFC postseason bid is that the team’s franchise quarterback has regressed to the player he was when he entered the league. On Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa turned in one of his least-compelling performances of the season, completing 12 of 23 passes for a scant 157 yards (plus an interception) against the hapless 2–10 Saints.
The worst part? The eye test tells you it was so much worse than the terrible numbers indicate for the NFL’s co-leader in interceptions.
Luckily for Miami, the defense picked up the slack and held on to a 16-0 halftime lead, in large part thanks to two points they tacked on late in the fourth quarter when Minka Fitzpatrick delivered the play of the day, intercepting Saints quarterback Tyler Shough’s two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game, racing the length of the field for two Miami points.
Even then, the Dolphins weren’t safe from themselves. New Orleans recovered its onside kick and crossed midfield with more than a minute left, setting up one final chance.
But on fourth-and-one, Miami stuffed a run attempt, ending the agony.
The Suddenly Brutal Road Ahead
Three weeks ago, Miami’s remaining schedule looked sneaky-easy.
Now? Not so much.
The Jets were a disaster with one win. But they won two of four games in November, including last week’s comeback victory over Atlanta.
The Steelers are headed in the wrong direction with Dolphins-like alacrity, but they still have a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Week 15’s opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, had Joe Flacco under center. Joe Burrow has since returned — and he looked incredible against Baltimore this past week.
Baker Mayfield appeared badly injured and likely to miss Week 16’s matchup with the Phins, but he has managed to gut it out and played well in a win over Arizona over the weekend.
And the New England Patriots? Well, the only hope there is that they have the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up by the time the two teams meet in the regular-season finale.
It has been 24 years since Miami last won a playoff game, the longest active drought in the NFL. The odds are heavily against that streak coming to an end anytime soon.
