Photo by Michael Reaves via Getty Images
Audio By Carbonatix
As offseason turned to preseason, it was clear Las Vegas wasn’t a huge believer in Tua Tagovailoa making the leap from promising NFL starter to MVP-caliber player.
But Caesars.com recently noted that bettors are changing that narrative. After opening as a long shot to win the NFL’s MVP award, Tua reportedly has received more action than Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
According to Caesars, what started as 175-1 odds have dropped to less than half that.
Tagovailoa’s NFL MVP odds were first displayed at 175-1, yet he’s since swung to his current standing of 75-1. The lefty quarterback ranks 12th in tickets for MVP at 2.4 percent, and 13th in handle at 2.8 percent. He’s received two $1,000 bets to collect the hardware at 75-1 odds, one from a Nevada bettor and the other from an Indiana bettor.
Over the past two weeks, Tagovailoa has been an especially popular MVP bet. The only players who have received more money in this market over that span are Trey Lance, Derek Carr, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert. Overall, Tagovailoa has drawn more MVP bets than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Matt Stafford. He’s also been a sleeper pick to finish with the NFL’s most passing yards (40-1), as he’s tenth in tickets (2.5 percent) and 15th in handle (1.3 percent).
The report also indicates that Miami as a whole is on the come up. After opening as a clear underdog in the AFC East, the Dolphins have charmed bettors more than the New England Patriots – though both teams are far behind the Buffalo Bills, it’s an indication that fans are more bullish on the Dolphins’ chances to win the division than previously thought.
Obviously, this is all relative. As they say, Las Vegas wasn’t built on the backs of winning bettors. It is, however, interesting to see money coming in on Tua. Bettors clearly see value in the Dolphins’ starting QB now that he has Tyreek Hill and a boatload of weapons at his disposal.
Whatever the bettors say, Tua and the Dolphins will need to prove it on the field come fall. But it’s nice to finally see the sharp money behind the Dolphins rather than against them.
