Photo by the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)
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Update published 11:20 a.m. 9/27/2022: Hurricane Ian has strengthened into a major hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 115 mph as of September 27, 11 a.m. The National Hurricane Center warned that Cuba may experience life-threatening storm surge, flash floods, and devastating wind damage as the storm passes over the western portion of the country today.
The hurricane’s forecast track came into better focus over the last 24 hours, with most major models now predicting Ian making landfall as a major hurricane on the central west coast of Florida Wednesday, between Pinellas and Charlotte counties. The storm’s impact will be felt across the state, however, with bands of heavy rain and tropical-storm-level winds stretching from the Florida Keys to the Panhandle.
“Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central to northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a September 27 morning advisory.
“Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane,” the center said.
The original story follows below.
Fueled by warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear, Hurricane Ian is forecast to continue strengthening before heading towards Florida, where it is expected to make landfall as a strong hurricane, possibly a Category 3 storm.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast shows a wide span of possible tracks for Hurricane Ian. The storm could stay offshore and strike the Florida Panhandle around Friday, or it could veer east and make landfall on Florida’s west coast on Wednesday, as far south as Sarasota County.
“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of a life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its early morning advisory September 26.
Hillsborough County, the most populous Florida county outside the Miami metropolitan area, issued its first mandatory evacuation order during a September 26, 10 a.m. press conference. County administrator Bonnie Wise said shelters around the county will be opening soon to accommodate residents.
Wise expects that more than 300,000 people will be evacuated from Hillsborough County.
“We need to give people enough time to find transportation and go to shelters safely and in an orderly fashion,” Wise said.
Hillsborough County Emergency Manager Timothy Dudley said that the county’s coastal areas, which include Tampa Bay, might experience a massive storm surge, up to 15 feet.
“As we’ve all seen, this storm is unpredictable,” Dudley said at a prior press conference, on September 25. “Don’t be complacent. The [forecast] cone exists for a reason. Monitor weather forecasts and make sure you know your emergency plan, and your hurricane supply kits are prepared.”
The west coast of Florida or Florida Panhandle may experience more than 20 inches of rain as the storm tears through later this week.
Miami-Dade County and the east coast of the state are now out of the forecast cone for a direct strike from the storm. Still, the National Hurricane Center is predicting heavy rainfall – six inches or more – and potential flooding in the Florida Keys and Miami metropolitan area.
The storm strengthened into a hurricane overnight and is expected to continue intensifying. The NHC estimates that Hurricane Ian’s sustained wind speeds, clocked at 80 mph , will increase to more than 110 mph over the course of the day.
At an afternoon press conference in Pinellas County, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said that more than 25,000 line workers are on standby to repair the power grid once the hurricane passes. Pinellas was among several counties along Florida’s west coast that had put mandatory evacuation orders in place by 6 p.m. September 26.
“Depending on the severity of the storm … power outages can be lengthy. It may not just be one day when you’re out of power,” DeSantis warned.
The storm will be moving near or over western Cuba the evening of September 26. Life-threatening storm surges and hurricane-force winds will be battering the island nation, the NHC said.
A September 27 morning forecast by the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Ian’s anticipated track towards the west coast of Florida.
Forecast by the National Hurricane Center
On Sunday, residents in Central Florida were waiting in lines to fill sandbags, courtesy of emergency management officials, to prepare their homes for potential flooding. Cars were spotted stretched around the block at a Costco gas station in Tampa as residents loaded up shopping carts with cases of water bottles and others filled up red gas containers for home generators.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management said it is working to load 360 trailers with more than two million meals in preparation for distribution to impacted areas. Governor DeSantis’ office announced that it had activated 2,500 members of the National Guard across the state.
State healthcare administrators meanwhile say they are taking action to ensure nursing homes are prepared for the storm. The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration stated Sunday that it had completed 37 onsite visits to nursing homes and assisted living facilities that previously failed to meet onsite electrical generator requirements.
The agency’s efforts indicate that nursing homes’ hurricane preparedness remains a priority after the tragedy at Rehabilitation Center at Hollywood Hills, where at least 12 elderly residents died of heat exposure during a power outage in the wake of Hurricane Irma in September 2017.
The Broward State Attorney’s office revealed September 22 that it was no longer criminally charging three former Hollywood Hills nurses in connection with the tragedy. The trio are listed as witnesses against the remaining defendant, Jorge Carballo, who was the facility administrator when Hurricane Irma struck.
The last major hurricane to directly strike Florida was Hurricane Michael on October 10, 2018. The storm reached Category 5 strength, with 160 mph sustained winds, before it ravaged Mexico Beach, Panama City and the surrounding area in the Florida Panhandle. Michael was the first Category 5 storm to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
