One of the horrors of fighting a war against a loosely-organized group of insurgents, like the United States is currently doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the ever present threat of seemingly random attacks. But what if there was a mathematical pattern that could be used to predict those attacks? Well, researches at the University of Miami claim they've found one.
UM Physicist Neil Johnson talked to Russia Today, and says that the math has less to do with, say, predicting the outcome of a football game, and more to do with analyzing the patterns that make predicting a traffic jam in Miami statistically similar to predicting a traffic jam anywhere else.
The team analyzed data from nine wars, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and found that all the wars that involved insurgent forces fit the mathematical format.
Johnson says that the model could be used to predict future attacks, as well as to run scenarios predicting the outcomes of the effects of either increasing or decreasing the size of the non-insurgent forces.
Keep Miami New Times Free... Since we started Miami New Times, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Miami, and we would like to keep it that way. Offering our readers free access to incisive coverage of local news, food and culture. Producing stories on everything from political scandals to the hottest new bands, with gutsy reporting, stylish writing, and staffers who've won everything from the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi feature-writing award to the Casey Medal for Meritorious Journalism. But with local journalism's existence under siege and advertising revenue setbacks having a larger impact, it is important now more than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" membership program, allowing us to keep covering Miami with no paywalls.