The conventional wisdom is that Republican primary voters are having a little fun with their support of oddball outsider candidates like Donald Trump and Ben Carson but that when it comes time to vote, they'll shift toward a more "electable candidate." Well, if the latest poll of likely Florida voters is to believed, those electable candidates might actually be Trump and Carson.
A Survey USA poll of 2,400 likely Florida voters finds that while Hillary Clinton makes handy work of both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in a head-to-head matchup, she falters against both the brain surgeon and the businessman.
But before we get to those head-to-heads, let's look at their latest numbers on the primary level.
Trump has a giant, 20-point lead in Florida over Carson, with Rubio just one point behind Carson. Bush, meanwhile, is in fifth place at 7 percent.
Trump leads among every single demographic group except for black Republicans, who support Carson. However, Trump's lead isn't as high in every group. Among Republicans ages 18 to 34, Trump is only at 33 percent to Carson's 28 percent. Among Cubans, Trump is at 25 percent to Carson's and Rubio's 23 percent.
The Democratic primary isn't much of a surprise:
Yep, Hillary Clinton continues to kill it among Florida Democrats. Bernie Sanders' best demographic is among 18-to34-year-olds. He gets 41 percent to Clinton's 50 percent, but Clinton has huge leads among every other group.
What's more interesting is the head-to-head matchups among the leading candidates from both parties.
Here's how Clinton fares against the various Republicans:
- Clinton vs. Trump: 43/47
- Clinton vs. Carson: 44/47
- Clinton vs. Bush: 46/44
- Clinton vs. Rubio: 46/45
- Clinton vs. Fiorina: 48/42
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And here's how Sanders does:
- Sanders vs. Trump: 41/50
- Sanders vs. Carson: 40/48
- Sanders vs. Bush: 44/46
- Sanders vs. Rubio: 44/46
- Sanders vs. Fiorina: 46/43
Yep, the Democratic socialist's only chance at winning Florida at the moment is in a matchup against Carly Fiorina.
Still, it's notable how much better both Trump and Carson do against the Democrats when compared to presumed establishment candidates Bush and Rubio. Will that continue to hold true by the time Floridians head to the polls in March? Who knows.