Naked Politics carries the results of a private poll showing that exactly 50 percent of Miami-Dade voters want to see Miami-Dade Carlos Alvarez recalled, while only 34 would vote to keep him in office. 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Alvarez, while only 24 percent view him favorably. There's a little more than two and a half weeks until the recall election, so it may not be a death sentence yet for Alvarez, but he's definitely fighting an uphill battle.
"It's good news. He's right at 50 percent. His recall is not a foregone conclusion," Roger Stone, a colorful and infamous Republican consultant who now makes his home in Miami-Dade tells Naked Politics. "Sure, his unfavorables are at 46, and it's not great. But it's under 50. He's not nearly as polarizing as people would have you believe."
Yet, in a county with notoriously low voter turnout, we're not sure if Stone should be so optimistic. It's very unlikely that enough of that 18 percent of undecided voters will decide to head to the ballot box in favor of Alvarez. Rather, they'll most likely stay home. Though, the out come, one way or another, will likely heavily depend on voter turnout.
The poll was conducted by Tony Fabrizio, a pollster who works closely with Gov. Rick Scott and was the chief strategist for Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign. It was commissioned by a group that wished to stay anonymous.
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Though, Miami-Dade voters seem somewhat uninformed about the election. When asked to name one or two things they know about the mayor, 40 percent replied that he was being recalled. Only 18 percent say they knew he raised taxes, which was one of the reasons the recall election was put in place. So it's perhaps possible Alvarez's campaign to save himself could kick in full force in the lead up to the March 15th election and have enough time to change public perception about the mayor.
The poll also asked voters who they would vote for to replace Alvarez. Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaino came it first with 13 percent of the vote. Miami New Times Luther Campbell was not part of the questionnaire.