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So who is going to win Florida? Don’t ask the polls right now. Three major polls of Florida’s electorate were completed over the weekend (just in time for early voting), and all three show President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a statistical tie in the Sunshine State.
A Public Policy Polling survey shows Obama with a slight 49-48 lead over Romney, but that’s well within the margin of error, so the two are effectively tied.
A CNN poll likewise showed Romney with the one point lead, at 50-49. Again, that’s well within the margin of error. Though with third party candidates like the Green’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson added in the mix, Romney and Obama are tied 48-48.
A SurveyUSA poll meanwhile finds the two completely tied at 47-47. That survey also claims that among those who have already voted, Obama leads 57% to 42%. Though, among those who say they plan to vote on Election Day, Romney leads by 13 points.
It appears that the more people who show up at the polls, the better Obama’s chance are. While the aforementioned CNN poll shows a virtual tie among “likely voters,” Obama has a 52-46 among all registered voters.
So far, 2.3 million Floridians have already voted. That’s about a quarter of the entire electorate. Registered Democrats so far lead by a slim margin in total votes cast.
The New York Times‘ Five Thirty Eight poll analysis blog still gives Romney a 65 percent chance of winning Florida, but predicts a thin vote margin of just 1.2 percent.
In other words: Your vote very well could make a difference either way, so get out and vote.
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