That's what the ESPN Playoff Predictor thinks of the Miami Hurricanes' prospects after falling to unranked Syracuse over the weekend.
As the NCAA college football playoffs loom, the only thing the Canes and their fans have to look forward to is an unwelcome bye weekend to end the regular season. (That, and to ponder whether 24 percent is what Sebastian the Ibis was thinking his chances were with that Syracuse sideline reporter.)
The Hurricanes’ once-promising 2024 campaign hangs in the balance as they await their placement in the new College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. The final speculative ranking comes ahead of championship game weekend, with the sixth and final reveal set to be released on Sunday, December 8.
The anxiety of not knowing whether they'll be playing for a national championship or the honor of holding a jar of mayo above their heads in the Hellmann's Bowl comes as the direct result of a gut-wrenching 42-38 loss to unranked Syracuse this past Saturday, which obliterated the team's hope for an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Championship Game appearance and, with it, the right to control their own destiny.
With no trip to the ACC title game to look forward to, Miami's final résumé consists of a 10-2 overall record and 6-2 in ACC play. After beginning the season ranked No. 19 in the Associated Press poll, Miami climbed as high as No. 4 before a pair of losses to unranked opponents — Georgia Tech and Syracuse — derailed any dreams of sitting back and relaxing as other teams jockey for postseason position.
🚨BREAKING🚨
— CanesMuse (@canes_muse) December 1, 2024
The Miami Hurricanes have fallen to No. 14 in the latest AP Poll. #GoCanes 🙌 pic.twitter.com/SNlErhzcUc
Miami's Path to the Playoff
The Hurricanes are currently No. 14 in the AP's Top 25, but nobody cares about that this late in the season. Miami's standing in the CFP rankings, which ultimately determine the 12-team playoff field, is what matters. As Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Clemson battle it out for the ACC crown and an automatic playoff berth this weekend, the sad reality is that for Miami to secure a spot, the committee must deem them one of the top seven at-large teams.While seven at-large spots may seem like plenty for a team currently ranked No. 14, many seats are already seemingly reserved. Yet according to ESPN senior college football writer Heather Dinich, who projects Miami to make the playoffs as the 11th seed, "The Canes are in for me, at least right now."
Dinich adds that, in her view, "The selection committee likes this offense, Cam Ward, and close losses," which is to say Miami ought to look better to the committee than, say, Alabama and South Carolina, two three-loss teams that remain in the hunt.
Heather Dinich projects Miami to make the playoffs.
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) December 1, 2024
She thinks this committee will point out Miami’s offense & close losses. pic.twitter.com/etoZeY3sFF
What’s Next?
The Canes don't have a game this weekend, so they'll wait and watch as their fate is decided elsewhere. They absolutely need SMU to beat Clemson, which has already lost three games. Then they need Dinich's scenario to play out.If the Hurricanes are excluded from the playoffs, they’ll likely be headed to a lower-stakes bowl game. And if that's the case, key NFL-bound players like Cam Ward and Xavier Restrepo could opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, leaving Miami’s pride as the only thing on the line.
Regardless of this weekend's outcome in championships games or the finality that comes with Tuesday’s 12-field playoff announcements, this season will be remembered as a bittersweet one for Miami unless they manage to squeak into the postseason and win at least one game.
Anything less would mean the best Miami Hurricanes team fans have seen in two decades ends yet another season without an ACC title or meaningful postseason competition. And the 2025 NCAA season to come — which will feature a large swath of new faces — will look much more like a rebuilding project than it will a revenge tour.
