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If New York Republicans hold up their threats to flee to Miami after Zohran Mamdani becomes mayor, they may have plenty of listings available. That’s according to a Redfin.com analysis of migrations from flood-prone counties, which lists Miami-Dade as the county with the highest net outflow of residents between July 2023 and July 2024.
The real estate company examined U.S. Census Bureau data, including immigration and climate-risk indicators, to identify which flood-prone counties were experiencing the most residential movement. Despite having a smaller population than some of the other top ten counties, Miami-Dade led the way by a large margin over 310 U.S. counties considered to be under high flood risk by Redfin.com.
Miami-Dade saw about 67,000 people leave during the time period Redfin analyzed, higher than Harris County, Texas, (Houston) with about 31,000; Kings County, New York, (Brooklyn) at about 28,000; Hudson County, New Jersey, (Jersey City) at about 12,000, and Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, (just west of New Orleans) at about 5,100.
Redfin agents blamed soaring housing prices, rising insurance costs, and area politics as primary factors for the 2024 exodus from flood-prone counties. And while those tributary factors have existed for years, they recently precipitated a surge in so-called outflows in 2024. Miami-Dade’s net outflow saw the most rapid increase, rising from about 50,000 in 2023 to about 67,000 in 2024.
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“A lot of people moved to Miami during the pandemic, thinking life would be a vacation,” Redfin real estate agent Ozzie Linares said in the analysis. “Many of those people are now leaving because they’ve realized living here isn’t a piece of cake — the city has become increasingly expensive and extreme weather events are on the rise. We were just under a flash flood warning due to higher-than-normal king tides.”
A May 2025 Redfin survey of approximately 1,200 people identified climate risk as the leading factor prompting Florida residents to relocate. But many may be moving to other flood-prone parts of the state, the analysis suggests. A list of U.S. counties with the highest inflows of residents from July 2023 to July 2024 shows six Florida counties in the top 10: St. Johns County (St. Augustine) with about 11,000, Volusia County (Daytona Beach) with about 9,700, Charlotte County (between Fort Myers and Sarasota in southwest Florida) with about 5,900, Citrus County (on the Gulf of Mexico coast west of Orlando) with about 5,200, and Flagler County (between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach) with about 5,100.
