Conventional wisdom would have it that Rep. David Rivera's nearly 11-point loss to Democratic challenger Joe Garcia might have had something to do with all those scandals Rivera currently finds himself embroiled in. Rivera however was never much for conventional wisdom. He maintains that changing demographics and voter turnout were to blame.
"I think an analysis of the results demonstrates that the presidential election had a significant impact on several congressional races, including my own," Rivera told the Miami Herald. "It makes it tough for Republicans down ballot to be successful."
He also told the Herald that he believes reports of criminal investigations into his finances and allegations that he helped run a ringer candidate in the Democratic primary had nothing to do with the loss.
Sure, it's true that Rivera's redrawn district now has a slightly more Democratic voters in it than Republicans, but that doesn't quite explain the 11-point defeat.
The fact that a state ethics board announced there was probably cause that he broke 11 state ethics laws while a lawmaker in Tallahassee might have had something to do with it.
The fact that the FBI is probing allegations that Rivera helped finance the campaign of political unknown Justin Sternad, believed to have run as a ringer against Garcia in the Democratic primary, might have had something to do with it.
The fact that one of the central figures in that story, Ana Sol Alliegro, Sternad's campaign manager and a close personal friend of Rivera's, is still missing might have had something to do with it.
The fact that Rivera's fundraising all but dried up because of that story might have had something to with it.
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The fact that the GOP establishment (except, interestingly, for Marco Rubio) pretty much abandoned Rivera might have had something to do with it.
The fact that there was already talk of running Jeb Bush Jr. in the district in 2014 might have had something to do with it.
But, no, no, no, it was probably just all changing demographics.