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The death of a major cartel boss in Mexico has unleashed a violent backlash in which members of the criminal group have paralyzed some cities through blockades and attacks on property and security forces.
At least 73 people have died as a result of the operation to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho.” The head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (also known as the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, or CJNG) was seriously wounded during a firefight with authorities on Feb. 22, 2026. He later died in custody.
As an expert in criminal groups and drug trafficking in Latin America who has been studying Mexico’s cartels for two decades, I see the violent aftermath of the operation as part of a pattern in which Mexican governments have opted for high-profile hits that often lead only to more violence without addressing the broader security problems that plague huge swaths of the country.
Who was ‘El Mencho’?
Like many other figures involved in Mexico’s drug trafficking, Oseguera Cervantes started at the bottom and made his way up the ranks. He spent some time in prison in the U.S., where he may have forged alliances with criminal gangs before being deported back to Mexico in 1997. There, he connected with the Milenio Cartel, an organization that first allied and then fought with the powerful Sinaloa Cartel.
Most of the information available points to CJNG forming under El Mencho around 2010, following the killing of Ignacio “Nacho” Coronel Villarreal, a Sinaloa Cartel leader and main link with the Milenio Cartel.
Since 2015, CJNG has been known for its blatant attacks against security forces in Mexico – such as gunning down a helicopter that year. It has since expanded its presence both across Mexico and internationally.
In Mexico, CJNG is said to have a presence in all states. In some, the cartel has a direct presence and very strong local networks. In others, it has cultivated alliances with other trafficking organizations.
Beside drug trafficking, CJNG is also engaged in oil theft (known in Mexico as huachicol), human trafficking, and extortion. As a result, it has become one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico.
The Impact of His Death
There are a few potential scenarios, and much will depend on the succession plans CJNG had in place in the event of Oseguera Cervantes’ capture or death.
In general, these types of operations – in which security forces take out a cartel leader – lead to more violence, for a variety of reasons.
Mexicans have already experienced the immediate aftermath of Oseguera Cervantes’ death: retaliation attacks, blockades, and official attempts to prevent civilians from leaving their homes. A similar scenario occurred after the capture of drug lord Ovidio Guzmán López in Sinaloa in both 2019 and 2023.
Violence flares in two ways following such high-profile captures and killings.
In the short term, there is retaliation. At the moment, CJNG members are seeking revenge against Mexico’s security forces and are also trying to assert their regional authority, despite El Mencho’s death. These retaliatory campaigns tend to be violent and flashy, including blockades and attacks against security forces and civilians.
After that, the longer-term violence associated with succession begins. This could mean that those who are below Oseguera Cervantes in rank fight for control. But rival groups could also try to exploit a leadership vacuum and make plays for their own rise to prominence.
The level and duration of violence depend on a few factors, such as whether there was a succession plan and what kind of alliances are in place with other cartels. But generally, operations where a cartel boss is removed lead to more violence and fragmentation of criminal groups.
Of course, people like El Mencho, who have violated laws and engaged in violence, must be captured. But in the long run, that doesn’t dismantle criminal networks nor reduce the size of their operations.
State of Security
The surge in violence after El Mencho’s killing comes as some indicators of Mexico’s security situation had been improving. For example, homicide rates declined in 2025.
But other statistics are still appalling. Disappearances are still unsettlingly high. The reality that many Mexicans experience on the ground is one where criminal organizations remain powerful and embedded in the local ecosystems that connect state agents, politicians, and criminals in complex networks.
Criminal organizations are engaged in what academics call “criminal governance.” They engage in a wide range of activities and regulate life in communities – sometimes coercively, and at other times with some degree of legitimacy and cooperation from the population.
In states like Sinaloa, operations against cartel leaders have not dismantled illicit economies, which remain extensive and profitable. Violence also remains high, and communities continue to suffer. The day-to-day reality for people in some of these regions is still one of fear.
In the greater scheme of things, the cartels, embedded in Mexico’s politics and economy, are still very powerful.
Mexico’s Cartel Strategy
The past two Mexican administrations vowed to reduce the militarization of security forces. But the military’s power in Mexico has actually expanded.
President Claudia Sheinbaum wanted a big, visible hit while the U.S. pushes for more militarized policies to counter Mexico’s trafficking organizations. But this dynamic is not new. Most U.S. and Mexican drug trafficking policy has historically emphasized these high-profile captures, even if just for short-term gains.
After all, it’s easier to say “we captured a drug lord” than address broader issues of corruption or impunity. There is generally no broader justice when cartel leaders are captured or killed. The fanfare isn’t accompanied by investigations into disappearances, murders, corruption, or halting drug flows.
Captures and killings of cartel leaders serve a strategic purpose of showing that something is being done, but the effectiveness of such policies in the long run is very limited.
Killing a drug lord means little if the networks behind him remain intact. Without broader crackdowns and a focus on justice, crimes like murder, disappearances, and extortion will keep defining daily life in Mexico.
Editor’s note: New Times occasionally shares articles from The Conversation, a nonprofit collaborative whose team of journalists works with academic experts to produce informative opinion and analysis for a general audience. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer(s). Unless otherwise noted, the content above was produced solely by The Conversation. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
