Poll: Donald Trump Is Now Beating Jeb Bush in Florida (Even in Miami)

Poll: Donald Trump Is Now Beating Jeb Bush in Florida (Even in Miami)
Photo by Gage Skidmore | CC2.0

Despite the controversy he leaves in his path everywhere he goes, Donald Trump is now in first place in the Republican primary in many national polls. Conventional wisdom, however, had it that there'd be no way he'd be able to take the lead in Florida. For one thing, our former governor, Jeb Bush, and one of our current U.S. senators, Marco Rubio, are among Trump's biggest competitors. For another, the Miami-Dade County Commission, the largest county in the state, had officially condemned Trump for his remarks about Mexican immigrants. 

Well, apparently conventional wisdom fails when it comes to Trump's campaign. 

A new St. Pete Polls survey shows that Trump is now in the lead among Florida Republican. He leads Bush by a healthy six percent state-wide. He also beats Bush in most of the state's largest media market — yes, Donald Trump is actually leading in Miami, at least in this sampling of voters. 

The poll was taken from July 18 to 28 and surveyed a sample of 1,902 registered Republicans.

Here are the statewide results: 

Donald Trump: 26.1%
Jeb Bush: 20.0%
Scott Walker: 12.2%
Marco Rubio: 9.7%
Ben Carson: 4.5%
Ted Cruz: 4.2%
John Kasich: 4.1%
Rand Paul: 3.3%
Unsure or Someone else: 15.9%

The poll stands in stark contrast to one released just last week from Mason-Dixon polling. Trump was in fourth place in that survey at 11 percent, with Bush as the clear front-runner in Florida with 28 percent. What's more is that 58 percent of Florida Republicans said they would never vote for Trump. 

St. Pete Polls also broke the response down by media market. Here is the result from the Miami media market (which also includes Broward County and the Keys):

Trump: 25.4%
Bush: 23.2%
Rubio: 15.0%
Walker: 10.4%
Kasich: 5.4%
Paul: 4.3%
Carson: 2.9%
Cruz: 1.1%      
Unsure or Someone Else: 12.5%

It's a slightly tighter race here, but yet Trump still prevails. In fact, Trump leads in every media market except for Panama City and Gainesville. (However, as the two smallest media markets in the state, the samples taken in those areas were also so small to the point they may not be all that accurate.)

St. Pete Polls has only been around for three years, and the political establishment still isn't sure whether to trust its polls. However, it has had a history of pretty accurate results. 

Its polling of the Florida Republican Senate primary, taken over the same time, seems much less shocking for example: 

David Jolly: 10.3%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera: 9.2%
Ron DeSantis: 8.9%
Todd Wilcox: 5.2%
Jeff Miller: 5.1%
Unsure: 61.2%


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