The latest polls released in the past few days really have not brought much clarity to the question of who exactly is in the lead in Florida. Two recent newspaper-commissioned polls show Mitt Romney with a sizable lead, but others show Barack Obama with a slim lead. Taken all together, we wouldn't be surprised if the state was heading for another recount.
In a poll conducted by Insider Advantage for The Florida Times-Union released this morning, Mitt Romney is up against Barack Obama 52 to 47. The poll claims Romney has a 25 percent lead among independent voters.
That's consistent with a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon for The Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times. The poll shows Romney with a 51-45 advantage. That poll, however, only shows Romney with a six point lead among independents. The Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney with an eight point lead among those 65 and up, while the Insider Advantage showed Romney up 17 points among that age group. So while the polls showed similar final results, there's actually a lot of inconsistencies between the two.
Not all polls though are showing Romney as the clear favorite. A Public Policy Polling survey released this morning shows Obama with a one point lead, 50-49. That poll shows Obama with a two point lead among independents.
A NBC/Marist poll meanwhile shows Obama with a two point lead, 49-47.
The latest Ipsos/Reuters daily web tracking poll has the two tied at 47 a piece. The similar Zogby/Newsmax daily tacking poll has Obama up by 5 points in the latest, but just yesterday had Romney up by two points.
The latest YouGov poll gives Romney a one point lead, 48-47.
The RCP average has Romney with a 1.8 lead, but the Pollster.com average has the two basically tied. FiveThirtyEight gives Romney a 56 percent chance of winning the state, compared to Obama's 44 percent.
All said, it looks like this will be a close one. And, once all is said and done, if you want to gauge how accurate a particular polling firm is, just look at their last Florida poll and compare it to the actual results.
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