From the moment Mitt Romney picked budget radical Paul Ryan as his running mate, one of the biggest question is how the Wisconsin rep would play in Florida. Romney desperately needs the swing state, but Ryan's plans to turn Medicare into a voucher system -- not to mention his shaky record on the Cuban embargo -- would seem to spell trouble in the Sunshine State.
Quinnipiac released its first post-VP pick poll this morning to test how much Ryan has affected Florida and other swing states. The answer? Not much. Obama still leads in Florida 49 to 46 percent.
The poll shows Romney may have gotten a tiny bump from Ryan's pick -- Obama led Florida 51 to 45 percent on August 1 -- but he's not been a game-changer so far.
"Romney's pick of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate has made some small difference in Florida," says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
More worryingly for the Romney campaign, the poll shows that Ryan's plans to turn Medicare into a voucher system are deeply unpopular in a state with a huge senior population. The poll found 62 percent of voters here oppose the idea, with just 28 percent in favor.
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Romney got a similarly small bump in other swing states, with Obama now leading Ohio 50 percent to 44 percent and still winning Wisconsin, Ryan's home state, 49 percent to 47 percent.
The poll also shows incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson maintaining a healthy lead over challenger Connie Mack IV at 50 percent to 41 percent.
The real question now is whether Romney can find the bump in Florida he needs by staging his nomination in Tampa next week -- assuming the RNC doesn't get blown off the map by Isaac, of course.