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Medical Marijuana Amendment May Be in Danger of Failing, According to Recent Polls

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Support for Florida's medical marijuana amendment has been riding high in polls for so long that it almost seemed like its passage would be a foregone conclusion. But a funny thing seems to have happened on the way to the ballot box.

Two new polls show that the amendment is now well below the 60 percent approval it needs to meet in order to be adopted into the state constitution.

The first poll comes from Gravis Marketing and found that only 55 percent of Floridians plan to vote for the amendment. Thirty-nine percent plan to vote no and seven percent remain undecided. That's considerably down from a Gravis poll in August that showed 64-percent approval of the amendment.

Another poll from St. Pete Polls showed that only 51.9 percent of voters approve of the amendment, while 38.7 percent disapprove. When including voters who were strongly leaning one way or another but hadn't yet officially decided, the breakdown is 54.3-40.1, with 5.6 percent still completely undecided.

A Survey USA poll from earlier this month found a 51-33 split.

Though, there are some polls that still show Amendment 2 sailing above the 60 percent threshold. A University of North Florida poll conducted in early August and late September showed 67 percent approval. Though, that may be an outlier.

Opponents of medical marijuana have launched TV ads attacking the amendment, which may explain some of the shift.

It's also not unheard of for Florida voters as a group to change directions on social issues as the actual election nears. Back in 2008, Florida's gay marriage ban, which was also called Amendment 2, seemed like it would not get enough votes to reach the 60 percent threshold to become law. Polls tightened up in the weeks before the election, and then voters approved the ban at a rate of 62 percent.

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