Despite the fact David Rivera has been continuously under investigation for one thing or another since even before taken his seat in the U.S. House, and despite the fact that there's now suspicions that Rivera helped run the campaign of an apparent ringer in the Democratic primary in his district, most national analysts still think he has the slight edge over challenger Joe Garcia in District 26.
In the past few weeks, though, several have now decided that the race may have become a bit tighter than previously predicted. That, of course, tends to happen when the incumbent is facing as many bizarre accusations as Rivera.
Like most Congressional races, there hasn't been much publicly released polling conducted in the race. At this point, anyone trying to score the horse race has to rely on the ratings of a select few analysts, and several of those have changed their ratings in the past few weeks.
The Rothenberg Political Report has changed their rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up/Tilt Republican."
Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating from "Leans Republican" to pure "Toss Up."
Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Roll Call still have the raced rated as "Lean Republican." The New York Times has had the race rated as a "Toss Up."
As the incumbent in a district where Republicans have about a 4,000 registered voter advantage, Rivera may still have the edge on those factors alone, but the recent headline-garnering controversy isn't doing him any favors.
The Joe Garcia campaign, meanwhile, is touting an internal poll that shows Garcia ahead of Rivera. It may be a while, however, before we get our hands on external numbers.
It seems safe to say that along with Rep. Allen West, Rivera is looking at one of the hardest roads to reelection of any incumbent in Florida.
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