Las Vegas Has Little Faith In a Breakout Season for Tua Tagovailoa

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Friends never pressure friends to gamble. Never!
We're not condoning sports betting — we would never do that. What we are saying is now is the time to check out NFL prop bets. For entertainment purposes only, of course.

Here are Las Vegas' most intriguing preseason betting lines on Tua Tagovailoa, courtesy of websites we would never recommend visiting (unless, like us, you're doing research).

MVP: +8000

Even if you know nothing about sports betting, chances are you're able to infer that +8000 means something is generally incredibly unlikely to happen. In this case, Vegas gives Tua the same shot at winning the Most Valuable Player award as it does Davis Mills.

You read that right: Davis Mills. Who is Davis Mills? Google him. In fact, don't. That's sort of the point.

Passing Yards: 3,950.5

Here, Vegas is actually giving some respect to the Miami Dolphins quarterback. Through two seasons in the NFL, Tagovalioa has an aggregate 4,467 passing yards to his name. That stat line is due to Tua having started his career as a backup and having missed games due to injuries.

In 2022, Vegas is banking on Tua staying healthy and hitting a higher number. Or, to say that another way, they're wondering if you believe he'll stay healthy. If he does, 4,000 yards is in sight. If Tua misses even a couple of games, reaching that mark is unlikely.

Passing Touchdowns: 25.5

Again, Vegas seems to be bettors to gauge whether Tua can stay on the field and off the trainer's table. In 13 starts last season, he totaled 16 touchdown passes. Definitely nothing to write home about. But with lots of new weapons, a clean bill of health, and 17 regular-season games, 26 scoring tosses seems well within reach.

Bet on Tua's body, and the performances that come with it when it's in uniform.

Offensive Player of the Year: +6600

Yikes! If you thought Vegas wasn't respectful of Tua's chances of winning the MVP award, you'll be even more shocked to learn they do not have much faith in him being the best offensive player in the league. Not by a long shot.

VegasInsider pegs Tua at +6600 to win the Offensive Player of the Year award — the same chance they give his wideout, Jaylen Waddle, and less of a shot than Raiders quarterback David Carr.

Passing Leader: +3000

Even when you narrow things down to the quarterback most likely to lead the league in passing, Vegas is giving Tua a "not very likely" score on the odds front. For reference, they figure Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a better chance.

Bottom line: If you're a betting Dolphins fan who believes Tua Tagovailoa will succeed with his new fleet of offensive weapons, the odds are in your favor.

Then again, the Dolphins hurt you enough as it is. That's why we're posting this information for amusement only.