Nate Silver, the human calculator behindFiveThirtyEight
-- the magic blog that predicted the presidential race -- has now
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. He's predicting in the Best Actor catagory a win for Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn, who at one time seemed a lock.
How confidant is he in a Rourke win? Exactly 71.1 percent sure. Told you he was a human calculator. But he's leaving little room for doubt in the Best Picture and Best Director races. He gives Slumdog Millionaire a 99.0 percent chance of winning, and the film's director a 99.7 percent chance of taking home a statuette.