See that image up above? That's the result of meteorologists running Tropical Storm Erika's data through a bunch of different computer simulation models and placing them all on a single map. You'll notice just one of those models makes a direct hit in Miami-Dade. You'll also notice however that Miami sits in just about the middle of all those particular models.
So the real takeaway this morning is that we really have no idea yet how (or even if) Erika will affect Miami. It is a good excuse to check in on your hurricane supplies pantry, though.
Erika is currently sitting southeast of Puerto Rico as a relatively weak tropical storm winds hitting just 45 mph. The general consensus is that she'll spend the next few days heading west-northwest, but isn't expected to strengthen much during that time. Puerto Rico is almost certainly in for some rain and wind, but what happens after that is murky.
Weather Underground reports that Erika could run into some of the same conditions that caused Tropical Storm Danny to dissipate into next to nothing before he got a chance to threaten Florida. If Erika does make a run towards Florida it will take at least four to five days for it to get here.
According to the NOAA's model, right now there's about a 20 percent chance of certainty that Miami will feel the effects of Tropical Storm force winds within the next five days.
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If Erika does manage to survive as an organized system once she makes her way past Puerto Rico, however, she could encounter conditions that could give her a bit of a power boost, possibly turning her into a full fledged hurricane.
Of course, as Floridians we all know by now how hurricane forecasting goes. Science is pretty good at telling us what a storm is doing in the immediate future, but when it's still hundreds of miles and days away, the predictions get much less accurate. Which is all to say, this storm might not affect us at all, but don't get too attached to your plans this weekend — and do make sure you've got your hurricane survival basics on hand.