So, Who's Going to Lose to Charlie?
Absent amongst all this hullabaloo over who might seek the senate seat in 2010 is any murmur, any indication, any rumor of who the Dems might put up for Governor. Yeah, there's this wild card chance that Charlie Crist might run for senate, and if that happens expect CFO Alex Sink to declare her candidacy in a heart beat, but I, and probably most others, are giving that less than a 25% of happening. Charlie has "Obama like" approval ratings, and it is the prevailing thought that he'll crush whatever sacrificial lamb the Dems put up against him for the Governor's mansion, and knowning the Florida State Democratic party, they might just put up someone who's only worthy of being royally sacrificed.
It would still benefit Democrats to put up a strong, relatively well funded candidate with wide appeal, and if I'm a politician in the state who might fit that description I'd be seriously thinking about it.
For one, you never know what could happen. Back when the Dems were getting in line for the 1992 presidential primary George Bush I had 89% approval ratings, and seemed a sure thing for re-election, so all the heavyweights decided to wait until '96, and by God, weird things like Ross Perot and a "Read My Lips"-backlash happened and some little known Governor from Arkansas became President.
A strong Governor candidate would also help turn out. Let's say the
Senate primary results in some sort of Geographic divide. The northern
democrats line up behind one candidate, and South Florida lines up
behind another. If the Gov candidate comes from a different region, it
will help over all dem turn out, which could be a determining factor in
what may be a close Senate race, and hopefully restore some balance to
the State Legislature.
The Republicans are going to continue their aggressive campaign to
appeal to Hispanics, so it might benefit Democrats, who have never run
a Hispanic for Governor or Senate, to have a strong Latino leader at
the top of their ticket, too.
No one's going to want to lose, but if the candidate runs a strong campaign and gets better than expected numbers he or she will be in a good position to run again in 2014, or call dibbs if Bill Nelson decided to retire. Remember, Charlie Crist himself was the sacrificial lamb the Republican put up against Bob Graham for senate in '96 and it seemed to have turned out fine for him.
Or, you know, they could do what they did in the Senate election of '94,
and let some loser brother of a first lady duke it on in the primary
with a KKK grand wizard and pretty much throw in the towel before the
fight even starts.
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