Scientists Explain Why a Hurricane Hasn't Hit Florida in Nine Years: We're "Very, Very Lucky"
Hurricane season ends on November 30, but for Floridians it seems like it didn't even begin this year. In fact, it will be the ninth straight year in a row that a hurricane hasn't made landfall in Florida. That's the longest stretch in recorded history, more than doubling the previous records.
Scientists aren't exactly sure how to explain why, but Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, gives the best answer to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune: "Florida has been very, very lucky."
Though, this year has been in part because there were few actual hurricanes anywhere. Only eight storms reached named status in the Atlantic, and only six of them went on to become hurricanes. None of which threatened Florida.
In fact, Hurricane Wilma back in 2005 was the last hurricane to directly hit the state. Which is odd, because the Herald Tribune points out that on average Florida gets hit by a hurricane about every other year. The last streak of evading hurricanes lasted five years from 1980 to 1985.
Since Wilma there have been 61 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic, and Klotzbach calculates the odds of every single one having missed Florida being 1,150 to 1.
To put it in further perspective, at least one forecaster estimated that there was a 75 percent chance that a hurricane would make landfall this year. Though, that same scientist went a little overboard in his predictions. He thought there would be a total of 17 named storms this year.
So, yes, indeed we've been strangely lucky, but obviously it's only a matter of time until that run comes to an end. Maybe next year.
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