Same Old Story
It's official: Hollywood has run out of ideas. If you thought 2006 was bad, just wait. In 2007 the studios will give up on birthing blockbusters and instead concentrate on cloning them, with sequel after sequel after sequel. Familiar titles will be followed by so many numbers that filmgoers looking for a Friday-night flick will need a calculator just to figure out which of the threequels and fourquels they want to see if any at all.
Oh, and if the year of living sequentially doesn't destroy the movie biz, then the expected labor strike (also a sequel) will. Trapped in a horror of its own making, Hollywood is scared witless by the looming prospect of negotiating not one but two labor contracts in 2007: the Writers Guild of America, whose gangsta refusal to begin negotiating early with the studios foreshadows a retread of the disastrous 1988 walkout (which shut down production for 22 weeks and cost the industry about $500 million), and the Screen Actors Guild, whose talks might begin in January but could amount to squat. Both writers and actors are still pissed about being stiffed by the studios in the DVD era and are determined not to be bullied again in the digital age ahead.
Both Hannibal Rising (the fourth Hannibal Lecter pic, this one a prequel) and The Hills Have Eyes II will serve as foreplay for next summer's sequel orgy, rounded out by Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, another Pirates of the Caribbean, Hostel: Part II, Fantastic Four 2, Evan Almighty (followup to Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty, this time starring Steve Carell), Live Free or Die Hard (Bruce Willis as John McClane for the fourth time), Transformers (a live-action sequel to the animated original), Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (fifth in the series), The Bourne Ultimatum (number three, which is actually number four if you count that cheesy Richard Chamberlain version from 1988), and Rush Hour 3. Then, orgasming at the end of the year (get that Marlboro Ultra Light ready) are Resident Evil 3, Mr. Bean's Holiday (Bean II), The Golden Age (a.k.a. Elizabeth 2), Alien vs. Predator 2, National Treasure II, and Halloween 2007 (too many to count).
And those are just the ones I know about.
Yes, in 2007 the very idea of original screenplays will become increasingly quaint, like real butter poured on popcorn. (Good timing, because the writers will be camped out in picket lines anyway.) There will be a few nonsequel movies, but those are mostly remakes, biopics, or book adaptations. (At least we can all be thankful that, unlike previous years, there will be almost no TV spinoffs. The complete tanking of Sony's Bewitched in 2005 took care of that.)
The major studios are downsizing their own egos, since they no longer have the luxury to make the kind of movies that might please Oscar voters and film aficionados but don't necessarily attract the public at large. Instead of attempting something hell, anything new, studio moguls are more content than ever to do, and redo, and redo yet again the familiar, especially after the disastrous moviegoing year of 2005. But don't blame them; blame their bosses, those hedge-fund-loopy tools who find it easier to schmooze Wall Street about another Fantastic Four than to debate a green-lighting decision like Charlie Wilson's War, the Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts biopic about a boozin', hot-tubbin' U.S. congressman that is scheduled to debut in December 2007. These are the bigwigs who insist that their studios' upcoming slates contain several bankable movie franchises or else and whose underlings invented the prequel as a way to invigorate played-out franchises (and, in the process, cast younger, hotter stars like Christian Bale as Batman). And just wait for 2008: Universal thinks there's still life in Jurassic Park, and Paramount is reviving not only Star Trek but also Indiana Jones (and maybe casting a new star for Mission: Impossible).
It simply takes too much moolah to create awareness for new concepts in marketing parlance, this is known as "audience creation." With franchises and remakes, the awareness level of under-25 males the most coveted moviegoers approaches 100 percent. But with original stories, it drops below 60 percent. In a time when the average budget of a movie is almost $100 million, and marketing costs $36 million, it stands to reason that studios are loath to gamble on unproven product. Riding coattails takes the risk out of a notoriously risky biz, which means moguls can have fewer Maalox moments in what is tantamount to a life on meth.
Studios used to be embarrassed by their sequels. No more. When this past summer Disney announced a huge cost-cutting plan to appease financial analysts, the megacompany promised that in 2007 it would devote its resources to those films that have the potential to generate money-minting sequels, which are virtually critic-proof. Reviewers who gave thumbsup to Pirates 1 and flipped the bird to Pirates 2 didn't affect box office at all. The sequel was beyond huge, and Pirates 3 will be, too, even if Johnny Depp spends the entire two hours channeling Lance Bass instead of Keith Richards.
Also on the horizon, and garnering some buzz, is a spate of biopics, most of them set peculiarly in the 1970s. Nick Cassavetes wrote and directed Alpha Dog, which debuts in January and is based on the misadventures of Jesse James Hollywood, one of the youngest criminals ever to land on the FBI's Most Wanted List. David Fincher's Zodiac, a thriller about the notorious San Francisco serial killer, stars Jake Gyllenhaal. In Lasse Hallstrom's The Hoax, Richard Gere plays Clifford Irving, the Jayson Blair of the Seventies, only sleazier, as if that's possible. Brad Pitt is the original Missouri good-ol'-boy outlaw in The Assassination of Jesse James, and J.Lo and hubby Marc Anthony bring salsa star Hector Lavoe's life to the screen in El Cantante.
If little else, it's clear that the problems plaguing Hollywood will only grow worse in 2007: piracy, which the movie industry says is stealing $1.3 billion from its U.S. revenues alone; new media, though no one at the studios has yet figured out how to make money online; young Hollywood, better known for their Page Six performances than memorable roles.
My prediction? Hollywood moguls will find ways to pay themselves bigger bonuses while cutting the pay and perks for everyone else. And that's certainly not an original idea.
Nikki Finke writes the "Deadline Hollywood" column for LA Weekly and covers the movie industry on her blog, deadlinehollywooddaily.com.
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