Anyone expecting Florida to swing for Obama after video leaked showing Mitt Romney heaping scorn on the "47 percent" -- filmed at the home of a Boca millionaire, no less -- obviously doesn't know the Sunshine State. We live to make national elections exciting!
A statewide poll released last night by the Tampa Times and the Miami Herald finds Obama and Romney in a near tie in Florida. Two other polls out this morning give the president more hope, though, with one showing Florida voters favoring the prez on Medicare and the other showing Obama inching ahead in the state.
First, consider the Herald/Times poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon, which surveyed 800 registered Florida voters.
It found Obama with a 48-47 percent lead, well within the 3 percent margin of error.
"It's still very much a tossup. It's a turnout game," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon tells Politico.
The poll offers some other good signs for the GOP, including finding 52 percent of Floridians who say the country is headed the wrong direction -- a feeling that tends to favor challengers.
Less positive for Romney is the poll's finding that voters are evenly split over whether he'd do a better job of righting the economy than Obama. Considering that's Mitt's central campaign pledge, it's worrisome to the GOP that the message hasn't won over all those worried Florida voters.
Also, the poll found Obama with a sizable lead among independents, 51 to 40 percent. Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Florida, so independent votes will be key in November.
Adding to the intrigue are two new polls released this morning. The first, by Gallup, surveyed 1,200 adults in 12 swing states, including Florida, about Medicare.
The poll found that 50 percent trust Obama to address problems facing the system, while only 41 percent felt Romney would do better. Considering the strong retiree voting block in Florida, that's got to be good news for the president.
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Finally, a Public Policy Polling survey out this morning finds Obama with a wider lead than the Herald/Times poll. The PPP results show Obama ahead 50 to 46 in Florida, while Romney's favorability have dropped well below 50 percent.
Of course PPP tends to work for Democrats, so the better lesson to take from their latest poll is probably the same as from the Times/Herald's survey: This race is going to come down to the wire.