Poll: Trump Top Among Florida GOP, but Would Lose to Bernie Sanders in General Election

Poll: Trump Top Among Florida GOP, but Would Lose to Bernie Sanders in General Election
Photo via Bernie Sanders' Campaign

Donald Trump's popularity shows no signs of slipping in Florida. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Trump atop all his GOP rival among Republican primary voters with 28 percent lining up behind the Donald. That's actually a rise of 7 percent since the last time Quinnipiac polled Florida in late August. 

The problem for Trump? He can't beat any of the major Democratic candidates in the state in one-on-one general election match-ups. He'd even lose to Bernie Sanders in Florida. Yes, an avowed Democratic Socialist would beat Trump in a state that currently has Rick Scott at its governor. 

Here's how the GOP field currently shakes out in Florida

  • Donald Trump - 28 percent
  • Ben Carson - 16 percent
  • Marco Rubio - 14 percent
  • Jeb Bush - 12 percent
  • Carly Fiorina - 7 percent
  • Ted Cruz - 6 percent 
  • Jon Kasich - 2 percent
  • Rand Paul - 2 percent 
  • Chris Christie - 1 percent
  • Mike Huckabee - 1 percent 

Everyone else is polling below one percent in the state. 

Besides Trump's numbers, here are two main takeaways:

  1. This is the first time that Rubio has more support than Bush in Florida according to a Q poll.
  2. Fiorina-fever has not taken hold in Florida. Her seven percent is the same she received in the state in August. 

Twenty-nine percent of Florida Republicans also say that there's no way they'd vote for Trump, by far the highest of any candidate. Jeb Bush and Libertarian-leaning Rand Paul aren't far behind, however, with 18 percent saying they wouldn't vote for either candidate. 

Over on the Democrat side, there aren't many surprises: 

  • Hillary Clinton - 43 percent
  • Joe Biden - 19 percent
  • Bernie Sanders - 19 percent 

No one else got more than one percent in the race. 

Clinton is down five percent from the August poll, while Biden is up eight percent. Bernie, by the way, is up about four percent in Florida. 

Of course, Biden hasn't officially entered the race, and if he stays out it will generally benefit Clinton. Here's how it shakes out without Biden in the race: 

  • Hillary Clinton - 54 percent
  • Bernie Sanders - 23 percent
  • Jim Webb - 1 percent 

Well, uh, good for Jim Webb. 

However, it turns out Biden is the only Democrat who would win against every single major Republican in Florida. He leads Bush by four points, Carson by three points, Fiorina by 11 points, Rubio by three points, and Trump by an astounding 14 points. 

Clinton's results against Republican is a mixed bag. She leads Carson by two points, Florina by two points, and Trump by five points, but is behind Bush and Rubio by 1 percent each (though, most of those results are within in the margin or error, making them statistical ties). 

Sanders, meanwhile, doesn't have much hope in Florida in a general election. He trails Bush by four points, Carson by six points, Fiorina by one, and Rubio by five. Bernie's only hope is a head-to-head matchup against Trump. He leads the businessman by five points in Florida.

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