There's not many scenarios under which President Obama can win reelection in 2012 without winning Florida (especially considering we'll have two more electoral votes this time around). New numbers from Public Policy Polling show that while Obama is leading all Republican candidates right now in Florida, he only surpasses the 50 percent mark against Sarah Palin. It's not the worst sign for Obama, but certainly not the best.
PPP, is a democratically aligned polling firm. Here's the various head-to-head match-ups:
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- Barack Obama: 49% vs Michele Bachmann 40%
- Obama: 48% vs Herman Cain: 37%
- Obama: 52% vs Sarah Palin: 40 %
- Obama: 48% vs Tim Pawlenty: 40%
- Obama: 47% vs Mitt Romney: 43%
Most of these leave a lot of room for so-far undecided voters to lean Republican as they learn more about the candidates. Romney does the best against Obama (and is the favorite among Florida Republicans so far in the primary) but his numbers against Obama are slightly down from a closer 46-44 in March.