According to Real Clear Politics' average of the most reliable polls John McCain currently has a 5 point lead in Florida. InAnd/PollPosition data shows McCain up 8 points, while the best Obama does is tie with McCain in the Fox News/Rasmussen poll.
Some poll dorks are still hoping McCain is in a bit of post-Convention, Palin-assisted bump, and yesterday's Wall Street bombshell may shake things up, but the likelihood of a blue Florida in November isn't looking good.
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For one, Obama has never lead RCP's polling average in the state despite having spent $8 million here and mounting one of the biggest Democratic campaign organizations in Florida's history. The best he's done in RCP's average is tie in late July. McCain meanwhile just started airing ads in the state earlier this month.
The St. Petersburg Time's reports that Obama's campaign is still hopeful, but if things don't turn around soon many outside the campaign wouldn't be surprised if they pull out and reallocate resources to other battleground states.