On Monday we noticed Five Thirty Eight had switched their Florida electoral projection from McCain to Obama, and now Real Clear Politics shows Obama ahead in their Florida polling average for the first time in the campaign, reflecting Obama's lead in most recent sunshine state polls. It's Obama's 48.6 to McCain's 45.6.
While things are still far from uncertain, Obama right now has a large nationwide electoral lead according to the projections of both sites. Five Thirty Eight predicts 336 to 202. RCP predicts a guaranteed 259 for Obama to 163 for McCain, with 116 electoral votes still considered toss ups, but when you force those toss up states to one side or the other based on current polling data It's a whopping 353 to 185.
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It's more than a month away though, so there's no need for smug grins or tears of defeat on either side just yet. Gov. Charlie Crist, for one, is confident there's enough time to turn things around (which is probably just his way of saying "Johnny, dump Caribou Barbie like everyone says, and pick me!").