Obama has opened up leads outside the margin of error in Florida and two other swing states, Ohio and Virginia, at least according to a new poll from NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist College. The survey of registered voters in the Sunshine State found Obama with 49 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Mitt Romney.
More ominously for the Romney campaign, the poll also found a dwindling pool of undecided voters in Florida.
The poll of around 1,000 likely Florida voters found that just five percent haven't made up their minds yet. (And seriously, to that five percent: What the hell are you guys waiting for? Do you really not understand what each candidate stands for yet at this point?)
Meanwhile, a full 80 percent of voters surveyed said they "strongly" support their candidate; both results suggest that there's not much middle ground left in Florida for either candidate to sway in the next month.
"Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides," Lee Miringoff, director of Marist's polling operation, tells NBC.
NBC also found Obama leading by five points in Virginia and up seven points in Ohio; if Obama takes one or two of the three states, he'll probably get the 270 electoral votes he needs for a second term.
The poll also gave a huge advance to Sen. Bill Nelson over his challenger, Connie Mack IV, with Nelson leading 51 to 37 percent.
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Lest any Republicans in Florida feel panicky, there's still a long way to go until the election and several presidential debates scheduled that could swing tight races like Florida.
NBC's poll also contrasts with two others that came out this week by smaller groups. A statewide poll by Orlando-based Consensus Communications found a 42-42 percent tie between Obama and Romney yesterday.
And earlier this week, Mclaughlin & Associates actually found Romney leading Obama in Florida 50 to 47 percent. (Though it's worth noting that Mclaughlin usually polls for Republicans.)