Mitt Romney Officially in the Lead in Florida
For the past few months, most electoral maps have painted Florida a faint shade of blue, but ever since last week's debate Mitt Romney has made a comeback in Florida and turned our peninsula into a speculative shade of light red.
Poll after poll after poll taken in the last week has given Romney the slightest of leads. A Mason-Dixon poll gave him a seven point lead. Rasmussen Reports has him up by 4. Lesser known firms like ARG (by three points) and We Ask America (also by three points) show Romney in the lead. The overall Real Clear Politics average has him up by 2 percent.
Meanwhile, The New York Times polling analysis blog Five Thirty Eight now gives Romney a 60 percent chance of winning the Sunshine State, but predicts just a one point win with with 50.2 percent of the vote to Obama's 49.2. Though, nationally 538 still gives Obama a 66.1 percent chance of winning, and still has Obama in the lead in other swing states like Ohio, Nevada and Virginia.
It's certainly not an insurmountable lead for the Obama campaign to overcome in Florida, and there have been a few polls that have continued to show him in the lead. A University of North Florida poll released this week gave him a four point lead, while an NBC News/Marist poll gave him the one point lead.
Most polls still show about 4 or 5 percent of likely voters undecided. Whichever candidate ends up appeasing those remaining hold out may take victory in the state. (And, according to the prevailing political math, a victory in Florida would all but ensure an Obama win. Romney would have a little bit more work to do.)
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