Latest Projections: Obama Might Win Florida
Five Thirty Eight, along with Real Clear Politics, is one of the two places on the web to go for easily digestible explanations of what all these polling numbers mean, and recently on their projected electoral map the state of Florida turned from a faint hue of blush red to a beautiful sky blue. That's right, it looks like Obama's heavy investment in Florida is finally paying off.
While most polls still show the State either in a deadlock, or with a slight advantage for McCain. 538 uses some complicated system that weights polls and adds other data to the mix, and this all ads up to them saying that as of right now Obama has a 59% chance of taking the state.
Real Clear Politics still shows McCain with a 1.3% lead, but hasn't updated with any new Florida polls since September 24th.
Nate Silver, 538's moderator, is in the bag for Obama (though, he's pretty much a slave to his data, so if there's any bias in his outcome it's written into the formula, and there's no evidence of that), and warns that Obama supporters nationally shouldn't rest on their laurels.
Obama could very easily lose, and even if he wins, odds are that there will be at least one more swing back toward McCain in the intervening 37 days.
538 doesn't have any state specific pages to link to, so after the jump is a screen shot of their Florida data.