Conventional wisdom says that the 2010 midterm elections are supposed to be tough for Democrats. There's already some conservative pundits who think that Republicans taking over the house is a done deal. Of course, national conventional political wisdom doesn't always translate to Miami-Dade, and a new poll shows that Democrat Joe Garcia is leading the race in U.S. House District 25 against Republican opponent David Rivera. Then again, the poll does come from a Democrat-leaning polling company.
According to the poll Joe Garcia leads with 40 percent of the vote to Rivera's 33 percent. The poll also takes into account two third party candidates: Whig Party candidate Craig Porter (2 percent) and Tea Party candidate Roly Arrojo (7 percent).
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However, the poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a company with strong Democratic ties and released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Garcia's advantage would nearly disappear though if voters supporting obscure Tea Party candidate Arrojo threw their support to Rivera. In fact, last week The Herald tied Arrojo to Garcia's campaign manager and flouts the suggestion that Arrojo is purposely trying to drain support from Rivera.
District 25 was ironically ditched by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart who felt the district was becoming more Democratic-leaning. He had represented the district (which was carefully drawn by a state legislature committee he oversaw) since its creation. Diaz-Balart is now running in District 21, a seat being vacated by his brother, Lincoln.
Garcia challenged Diaz-Balart in the district in 2008, and Rivera is a state representative. While few polls have been conducted in the race, predictors like RealClearPolitics and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball give the advantage to the Republican.