Yes, there's a million different polls coming from all different directions, but the latest from War Room Logistics, a Republican aligned firm bases in Gainseville, is worth a look. Unlike most polls this early in the race, the survey polled likely Florida voters and not just registered voters. The poll also compared numbers from before Herman Cain's surprise win in Florida's P5 straw pool and after.
The result: Cain saw an 18 percent jump, while Rick Perry saw a 15 percent tumble. Romney remains in the lead in Florida, but he's not even pulling ahead of President Obama in the state yet.
"The War Room Logistics surveys have been unlike any other in Florida because they're based on a sample of likely voters, instead of just registered voters,"
explains The Herald
. "Around now, it's more common (and cheaper) to poll registered voters because the campaigns aren't in full swing and it's a little tougher to estimate the likely voter population."
War Room first conducted a poll on September 20th, before the straw poll. At that time Mitt Romney and Rick Perry were virtually tied at 25 percent and 24.7 percent respectively. Herman Cain was sitting at a tiny 4.9 percent.
When War Room ran the poll again on September 30th, after the straw poll, the numbers told a very different story.
Romney saw a bump that kept him firmly in first place at 28.20 percent. Herman Cain saw a meteoric 18.80 percent jump to finish second with 23.70 percent.
Rick Perry meanwhile saw a giant dissipation of support, and fell 15.55 percent to 9.10 percent. That actually puts him in fourth place behind Newt Gingrich. Besides Cain and Romney, Gingrich was the only candidate to see a bump after the poll.
Though, a large 20.10 percent of Republican voters remain undecided.
Though, which ever Republican wins isn't quite a lock to defeat Obama in Florida.
Romney does the best against Obama, but the President still hold a 48-42 edge. Romney is the only Republican candidate to hold Obama under 50 percent while breaking 40 percent.
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