Here's the good news for those wary of Donald Trump's surging popularity: Among the major Republican candidates polled against major Democrats in three major swing states, Donald Trump does the worst. Here's the bad news: In Florida he's still beating Hillary Clinton.
Trump and Clinton are both in the lead of their respective party's primaries in all three states. Clinton receives 48 percent in the Florida Democratic party primary to Bernie Sander's 15 percent. However, the matchup includes Joe Biden, who gets 11 percent despite not actually being in the race. Quinnipiac didn't run a poll without including Biden.
Meanwhile, Trump leads on the Republican side of things in Florida with 21 percent. Jeb Bush is the runner up with 17 percent while Ben Carson and Marco Rubio tied for third with 11 percent each. Interestingly, 29 percent of Florida Republicans say they would never support Trump while 17 percent say the same of Bush. Only 7 percent have a major deal-breaking problem with Rubio.
Here's how each Trump, Rubio, and Bush do against the major Democrats in Florida.
- 49 percent to Clinton's 38 percent.
- 51 to Biden's 38 percent.
- 54 to Sander's 35 percent.
- 51 to Clinton's 39 percent.
- 48 percent to Biden's 42 percent.
- 52 percent to Sander's 36 percent.
- 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent.
- 42 percent to Biden's 45 percent.
- 45 percent to Sander's 41 percent.
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Biden vs. Trump is the only scenario in which the Democrats win Florida, according to Quinnipiac.
Of course, this is a single poll very early on at a time when few other major pollsters have begun to test specific head-to-head on the state-level. In fact, the results of total Republican domination do seem weird for a state that just voted for Obama two elections in a row, and where most polling of the 2016 Senate race shows Democrats with the advantage. So this could be an outlier. We just don't have much to compare it to.
The real takeaway here, however, is that Rubio does better against Clinton in all three swing states than either Bush or Trump, which might add a little more momentum to his still sleepy campaign.