That's what political writer Mickey Kaus is wondering over at his blog on Slate.com, pointing out that every time the U.S. seems to be getting too cozy with Cuba, Castro pulls some shit just to let everybody know he's either a badass or batshit crazy.
This actually isn't Kaus's theory; as he points out, New York Times writer Ann Louise Bardach connected these dots in 2003 when she took a look back at U.S.-Cuba relations and noticed the following:
1970s: Henry Kissinger and his assistant were conducting some
backroom deals with the Cuban government to end the embargo, and just as
they thought they were nearing a deal, Castro sent troops to Angola,
pissing off the U.S.
1980: Jimmy Carter re-opened the U.S. Interests Sections in Havana,
basically as a de facto U.S. embassy. Castro's response? Mariel
1996: The Clinton administration and the Cuban government made some
agreements regarding migration and drug interdiction, everybody was cool,
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Cuba was opening up, relations were improving, yadda, yadda, yadda. Then Castro shot down two planes operated by the exile group Brothers to the
Rescue, killing four.
All of which has Kaus wondering what kind of insanity the Castro brothers are cooking up now that Obama is talking about lifting restrictions on family travel and remittances. Add to that whispers about Cuba hosting Russian bombers and Raul centralizing his power, and we might be in for some kind of shenanigans.