Yesterday, a Rasumussen Reports poll indicated that Republican challenger Rep. Connie Mack IV had taken a commanding nine-point lead in the the race against incumbent Senator Bill Nelson.
But not so fast. A new poll released today shows Nelson, a Democrat, with a five-point lead.
The latest numbers come from a Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll conducted by Mason-Dixon. Nelson gets 47 percent of the while 42 chose Mack. The poll was taken of 800 likely voters between July 9 and 11.
The results would indicate that the Rasmussen poll was something of an outlier. Not surprising, Rasmussen tends to be a bit kinder to Republicans and has produced a few polls totally out of step with other polling firms throughout the race.
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However, a five-point lead isn't exactly comforting for Nelson. Back in 2006 when he faced off against Republican challenger Katherine Harris he was consistently polling about 50 percent, and sometimes cracking 60 percent around this time. He went on to win that election with over 60 percent of the vote, in the closest thing to a landslide a purple state like Florida has seen in recent years.
Mack, with his experience and name recognition, seems to be posing a far more serious threat than Harris. So far, Nelson hasn't cracked 50 percent in any poll.
Only 36 percent of respondents say they like Nelson, and 12 percent say they don't know who he is. Odd considering the guy has been in the Senate for 12 years and active in Florida politics for about four decades.