The X Man Returns

On this Saturday afternoon, as people around Miami-Dade County brace themselves for trouble from Hurricane Jeanne, it's all politics, with Suarez and his merry band plotting strategy for November 2. "While my opponent is probably worried with fundraising at a time when people are more concerned about the weather, we're moving full-steam ahead," says an upbeat Suarez. Earlier in the week Andres Rivero and the Sierra Club had confirmed their intentions to endorse Suarez. More important, he'd also received his second round of public campaign financing -- $50,000. "I must admit, qualifying for the matching funds was huge," he says. "I don't believe I'd have a chance without it."

Throughout his political career, Suarez has done best with grass-roots campaigns that give him face-to-face contact with voters. He's in his element when engaging people, and they seem to respond well to his gregariousness. In Cuban venues like the Latin American Cafetería on SW 27th Avenue just off U.S. 1, people still refer to him as nuestro alcalde, our mayor. Even opponents acknowledge Suarez's strength of personality. "He's definitely the better campaigner," says political consultant and former Miami mayor David Kennedy, a Gimenez supporter. "Gimenez is a little bit too withdrawn."

Suarez typically shuns the use of consultants and paid campaign staff, relying instead on a loyal handful of volunteers, chief among them his 27-year-old son Frances. "We'll be fine with our 60 non-paid volunteers," says the younger Suarez, explaining that their emphasis in the runoff is to target two groups of people: those who didn't vote in the primary but who are expected to do so November 2, and those who did vote on August 31 but skipped over the District 7 candidates. "There were a lot of under votes," the son notes. "We want those voters. If we can mobilize voters like we did in the primary, we can make it a close race."

During the meeting at Harambourl's home, Suarez hands out copies of a voter-registration list Andres Rivero provided him. It contains the addresses and phone numbers of voters in several District 7 precincts who cast their ballots for Rivero in the primary. "I'm sending those voters letters notifying them of Rivero's endorsement and asking them to vote for me," Suarez says. "I've also got volunteers calling them." Suarez hopes those voters, predominantly affluent Hispanics and Anglos, will complement his strong support among black voters in South Miami and west Coconut Grove. (In the primary, Gimenez won 10,706 votes to Suarez's 8050 and Rivero's 5059.)

Voter turnout November 2 is expected to far surpass the primary's 37 percent. Experts say the presidential race will draw between 60 and 70 percent of registered voters to the polls. Capturing as many Rivero supporters as possible will be essential if Suarez hopes for an upset, but the prospect of nearly twice as many voters means both candidates will have to work twice as hard. "Frankly, I don't believe Xavier has the time or money to do that," says Ric Katz, a consultant who helped Suarez become Miami mayor in 1985.

Nevertheless Suarez is brimming with confidence. "I've been on radio nonstop for three straight weeks," he says. "We've blanketed the Coral Way and U.S. 1 corridors with signs. Rod Jude has been calling Sierra Club members to get them out. Everything I hear is that I am doing extremely well. There have been a lot of people who have maligned me. There have been enough things done to me that would warrant an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. But to paraphrase Abraham Lincoln's second inaugural address, I hold malice toward none. I look forward to having a great working relationship with everyone."

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What does Xavier Suarez have to do to win?

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Alfred Balsera

Lobbyist and campaign consultant

Gimenez supporter

There is no "Colonel's secret recipe" that would give Suarez an edge over Gimenez. Unfortunately Suarez has had a bad run with the media. He can still count on his traditional Little Havana voting bloc, who still believe in him. But he won't be able to resurrect his image among the English-speaking voters who read the Miami Herald and New Times.

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Rodney Barreto

Lobbyist and political fundraiser

Gimenez supporter

People underestimate just how smart the voting public really is. Especially in District 7. People know Xavier Suarez was an embarrassment to the City of Miami. There is no way he can win.

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Marie Brits-Cooper

South Miami commissioner

Suarez supporter

Hit the streets and knock on doors. People always remember your face, and that might be the only time the voters will get that close to you.

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Maurice Ferré

Former Miami mayor and former District 7 county commissioner

Independent observer

If Suarez can sustain his two-to-one lead over Gimenez in the district's black precincts, take about 30 percent of the Anglo vote, and get between 55 and 65 percent of the Hispanic votes, then it's a dead heat. But that is going to be pretty hard to do.

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Seth Gordon

Publicist

Gimenez supporter

He still has support among Hispanics in Miami so all he has to do is let them know he is on the ballot. But he has to get into areas of the county, south of Coconut Grove, where people have not seen his face. But knowing Xavier, he's probably already doing some of that. Meeting with voters is his strongest suit. But I don't think that is enough to win. He also needs to remind people about his first two terms as Miami mayor when he was a good guy and everyone supported him.

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Armando Gutierrez

Lobbyist and campaign consultant

Independent observer

Xavier Suarez needs more Cubans to vote. People think this district is evenly split among Anglos and Hispanics. That's not always the case. For example, my son is Cuban American yet he's registered as an Anglo voter. So he needs to work the Cuban precincts. I ran Jimmy Morales's campaign in 1996. He won because he got 50 percent of the Cuban-American vote.

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Ric Katz

Publicist and campaign consultant

Independent observer

Xavier Suarez should buy a lot of television time and run a series of spots depicting conversations with Suarez where he can show that he is rational and that he has his act together. He's already starting from a negative position. I don't believe he has the time or money to pull it off.

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David Kennedy

Campaign consultant

Gimenez supporter

Meet with as many voters as possible. That has always been Suarez's strength. He is more personable when he is on the campaign trail. But I don't know if he can overcome all the negative press he received during his last term as mayor.

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Bob Levy

Lobbyist and campaign consultant

Gimenez supporter

Xavier Suarez has to solidify his base and then capitalize on Andres Rivero's endorsement by reaching out to his voting bloc. If he can turn out his voters and the people who voted for Andres, Suarez could have enough to win. He should also reach out to all the voters who didn't vote in the primary.

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Jorge Luis Lopez

Attorney, lobbyist, and political fundraiser

Gimenez supporter

In order to prevail, Suarez has to undercut Gimenez's integrity and show voters that he is the lesser of two evils. But that's not going to happen.

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Alberto Lorenzo

Campaign strategist

Gimenez supporter

He's doing what he has to do by bombarding Hispanic voters with attack ads on Spanish-language radio and Anglo voters with attack mailers. He has to create confusion among voters regarding problems he created when he was mayor of Miami by placing the blame on Gimenez.

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Eston "Dusty" Melton

Lobbyist

Gimenez supporter

Suarez needs to get a brain transplant and then go back to Harvard. But that may not be enough. The guy is just too wacky.

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Tomas Regalado

Miami City Commissioner

Suarez supporter

Xavier Suarez needs to tap his fountain of support among Hispanic voters in District 7. He should also tell voters that he is against the $2.9 billion bond issue and the runaway development going on in the City of Miami. Those are key issues that resonate with the voters.

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Andres Rivero

Attorney

Third place in District 7 primary

Suarez supporter

Xavier is moving up. He has a set of endorsements he didn't have in the primary, including the Sierra Club, which is going to help him win support among voters who are concerned about environmental issues and overdevelopment. He also ran a smart strategy in the first round by using most of his money exclusively on mass media. None of his campaign financing went to paid consultants. So he's running a leaner operation and can do more with his campaign war chest.

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Kent Harrison Robbins

Attorney and Sierra Club board member

Suarez supporter

Xavier Suarez has to show people that he is a very personable, honest man despite all the negative things raised about him the last time he held political office.

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Katy Sorenson

Miami-Dade County Commissioner

Independent observer

If Suarez can effectively convey his message to the different constituencies in District 7, he can win.

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Frances Suarez

Attorney and candidate's son

Suarez supporter

Continue with our plan of getting out the vote. We have an army of about 60 nonpaid volunteers. Most of them are young professionals like me who were very successful during the primary by simply thanking people for coming out to vote. We're also going after the people who didn't come out for the primary, and early voters.

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Johnny Winton

Miami City Commissioner

Gimenez supporter

I don't see any way that Suarez could close the gap on Gimenez. I can't imagine any more people loading up on Bathrobe Xavier's bandwagon. Whatever he got in the primary is all he is going to get on November 2.