Ethnic Math: How to Get to 75,000

ART TEELE: In order to make it to a runoff, Teele's strategy is to capture 80 percent of the black vote (45,000), 25 percent of the Jewish vote (6000), 30 percent of the non-Jewish Anglo vote (19,000), and then scrape together another four percent of the Hispanic-related groups (5000). His biggest challenge: to draw away sufficient Anglo votes from Suarez.

MAURICE FERRE: As pollster Rob Schroth says, "Ferre's greatest strength is his weakness, and his weakness is his strength." Because Ferre does not dominate any single group, he needs to draw support from all of them if he hopes to win. His blueprint would have him winning 35 percent of the Jewish vote (8400), 30 percent of the non-Jewish Anglo vote (20,000), 25 percent of American-born Hispanics (4000), 25 percent of Cuban-born voters (22,500), almost half of all other foreign-born Hispanics (12,000), and fifteen percent of black votes (8500).

ALEX PENELAS: Penelas must begin by capturing 40 percent of the Cuban vote (36,000). Anything less than that and he could be in trouble. From there he will try to grab 25 percent of the other foreign-born Hispanics (6000), 35 percent of American-born Hispanics (6000), 25 percent of the Jewish vote (6000), 28 percent of the non-Jewish Anglo vote (18,500), and about 3 percent of the black community (2000).

XAVIER SUAREZ: Suarez finds himself in the odd position of needing to do as well in the Cuban-born community as he does in the non-Jewish Anglo community. To succeed he must win 35 percent of the Cubans (32,000) and 35 percent of the Anglos (23,000). He will also need to grab about 20 percent of the other foreign-born Hispanics (5000), 35 percent of the American-born Hispanics (6000), 30 percent of the Jewish vote (7000), and settle for about 3 percent of the black vote (2000).

 
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